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READ THIS NOW: My life of SHOULD'VE, WOULD'VE, COULD'VE until I discovered Crypto.

Mostly all here are invested into Crypto. We all have our own reasons, methods, values of how we invest our money. One thing in common is we all have one main goal. That is to get as much money as possible out of this with the time, and money we can spare.

That's the dam truth##.

We are all here together, and since we are all here on our own will , I want to tell you why you should be proud to hold all your crypto.
I'm 40 years old. At 18 after I graduated HS I had about $7800. $1400 from my graduation party, and $6400 selling my MTG collection on EBay. I also managed a small arcade for about $350 a week.
Back to my MTG collection...
I sold it because it changed. The designs on the new series looked too modern. The original designs were a work of art.
Anyway, I seriously wanted to hold those magic cards but I kept telling myself...
"I can get them back if I want. The price isn't going to move anytime soon. The market is in slight decline. Some of these have been the same price for 2 years now."
I was right, the price of my two Lotus's stayed the same for 5 more years. Not budging . 12 years later after that , those same two cards value at over $60,000ea I believe. If I held untill a few years ago or now, I would've been able to do a quick sale at $400,000. Yes at a discount.
The same goes for all the first edition garbage pail kids I had.

So, what did I do with all $7800##?

I told myself I want to invest it into Microsoft. But I talked myself out of it by saying
"Some people told me the market was a risk, and I had to prepare myself to lose it all"
So I didn't do it. I was close, but I didn't. I could've had OVER A MILLION!
I instead used that money for a school. Business computer programming. It was a waste because 90% of what they taught me came natural. I was doing basic programming at 13 for fun.
I regret not going with my initial FOMO on Microsoft , I regret listening to my own FUD with the MTG cards.
7 years later, I repeated the same mistake...
I had about $15,000 in the bank. I wanted to invest $10,000 in apple after I read about the release of the iphone. Instead opted to do 5k over FUD I read. It was FUD about the risk since they never made phones, and alot of people were ridiculing their idea.
Then I said to myself...
"Fuck that, I don't want to do this. I could do so much more with this 5k"
I instead used the 15k turbocharge my transam, add a racing transmission, tires, rims, new stero system, and I took a 2 week vacation ...GONE!
I got what I wanted. Got laid a bunch of times, went to car shows. That could of been $500k by now.
To top this off, I missed out on a quick $78,000 win at the racetrack because if my own FUD. Horses.
I lost $200, and was left with only I $5 that night. I decided, "you know what, fuck it, I'm going to do a completely off the wall wild bet.
I did a completely wild bet for $5. I picked all longshots in what they call a "Superfecta"(4 horses in that exact order 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place prediction.
1 minute before the race started, I Cancelled the bet. I told myself ...
"this is stupid, 99:1, 78:1, 56:1, 38:1 long shots coming out in this order? THATS INSANE...Why am I blowing 5 away? Fuck that, I instead put $5 on the 10:1 to win hopefully my to maybe get $50 back "
Well. Guess what? The 3nd largest superfecta payout in history. No body won it! It came out in the original order I out it in that's to a series of freak disqualifications in the race.
I hate myself for cancelling that. But hey, maybe that happened for a reason. Maybe I wouldn't have ended up living on another country for 2 years. Learning another language.
You see
So many times in my life I had the perfect opportunity, and I didn't take it. I let Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt make my Choices for me.
Then came crypto currency. In late 2016, a client of mine told me he got rich off Bitcoin. He raved about it . He told me about ripple, ETH etc.
I invested in his recommendation about XRP when it was $0.005. it FLEW UP from there. I took some of that massive gain and bought other things, and those FLEW. For someone like me, it was LOTS of money off my original $500.
Sure this was a "lucky time" to get in but that's not the point I'm trying to make here. The point is that I finally did it! I didn't let FUD fuck with my head. I just did it. I cashed out already in late 2017. About 90% of what I gained. Payed off all my debt, and my truck, and had another $30k or so to put a down payment on a house. If I didn't just stick with my guns and let the FUD get to me, then I would still be in a whole bunch of debt. Especially with this whole lockdown bullshit. But now....
NOW ,I never again I will tell myself...
"IF ONLY I DID THAT WHEN I HAD THE CHANCE"
NOW I NEVER HAVE TO SAY THAT AGAIN! I DONT GIVE A SHIT IF IT TANKS ANOTHER 50% FROM HERE because it's all house money. I NOW NEVER HAVE TO SAY ...
"IF ONLY I DID IT"
NOW I DID!
Crypto Currency is severely undervalued. Its manipulated down right now. This about this logic, how can something increasingly popular with more and more support by the day drop in price? Crypto isn't human. Bitcoin isnt getting fired over sexual harrassement, there isn't a corporate takeover. Its manipulation.
I don't care if this shit takes 5 years to recover. I'm holding . I don't care if BTC dips to $1000. I'm holding till this MCAP tops 10 trillion. so if you love your crypto, hold that F#%KING SHIT!
The lesson here is never let FUD make choices for you. Stick to your original beliefs. If there's a voice in the back of your head telling you "I want to do this", then Listen to that voice. That's you! Listen to yourself, not the new voice that intrudes after your choice.
submitted by JuicySpark to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Complete Guide to All r/neoliberal Flair Personalities [J-L]

Please see the first post [A-I] for more info about this post. Unfortunately, post character limit is 40k, so I will have to break this into multiple posts linked here:

[A-I]

[J-L]

[M-P]

[Q-Z]


James Heckman
1944 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. Professor at the Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies. Director of the Center for the Economics of Human Development (CEHD). Co-Director of Human Capital and Economic Opportunity (HCEO) Global Working Group. Heckman is also a Professor of Law at ‘the Law School’, a senior research fellow at the American Bar Foundation, and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
· In 2000, Heckman shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Daniel McFadden, for his pioneering work in econometrics and microeconomics.
· As of February 2019 (according to RePEc), he is the next most influential economist in the world behind Daniel McFadden.
· Heckman has received numerous awards for his work, including the John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association in 1983, the 2005 and 2007 Dennis Aigner Award for Applied Econometrics from the Journal of Econometrics, the 2005 Jacob Mincer Award for Lifetime Achievement in Labor Economics, the 2005 Ulysses Medal from the University College Dublin, the 2007 Theodore W. Schultz Award from the American Agricultural Economics Association, the Gold Medal of the President of the Italian Republic awarded by the International Scientific Committee of the Pio Manzú Centre in 2008, the Distinguished Contributions to Public Policy for Children Award from the Society for Research in Child Development in 2009, the 2014 Frisch Medal from the Econometric Society, the 2014 Spirit of Erikson Award from the Erikson Institute, and the 2016 Dan David Prize for Combating Poverty from Tel Aviv University.
“The best way to improve the American workforce in the 21st century is to invest in early childhood education, to ensure that even the most disadvantaged children have the opportunity to succeed alongside their more advantaged peers”

Janet Yellen
1945 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· Successor to Ben Bernanke, serving as the Chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018, and as Vice Chair from 2010 to 2014, following her position as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Yellen was also Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Bill Clinton.
· Yellen is a Keynesian economist and advocates the use of monetary policy in stabilizing economic activity over the business cycle. She believes in the modern version of the Phillips curve, which originally was an observation about an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. In her 2010 nomination hearing for Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Yellen said, “The modern version of the Phillips curve model—relating movements in inflation to the degree of slack in the economy—has solid theoretical and empirical support.”
· Yellen is married to George Akerlof, another notable economist, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureate, professor at Georgetown University and the University of California, Berkeley..
· In 2014, Yellen was named by Forbes as the second most powerful woman in the world. She was the highest ranking American on the list. In October 2015, Bloomberg Markets ranked her first in their annual list of the 50 most influential economists and policymakers. In October 2015, Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute ranked Yellen #1 in the Public Investor 100 list. In October 2010, she received the Adam Smith Award from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).
“In the long run, outsourcing is another form of trade that benefits the U.S. economy by giving us cheaper ways to do things.”
“I'm just opposed to a pure inflation-only mandate in which the only thing a central bank cares about is inflation and not unemployment.”

Jared Polis
1975 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· 43rd governor of Colorado since January 2019. Polis served on the Colorado State Board of Education from 2001 to 2007 and was the United States Representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district from 2009 to 2019.
· Polis is the first openly gay person and second openly LGBT person (after Kate Brown of Oregon) to be elected governor in the United States.
· In 2000 Polis founded the Jared Polis Foundation, whose mission is to “create opportunities for success by supporting educators, increasing access to technology, and strengthening our community.” Polis has also founded two charter schools.
· Polis was named Outstanding Philanthropist for the 2006 National Philanthropy Day in Colorado. He has received many awards, including the Boulder Daily Camera's 2007 Pacesetter Award in Education; the Kauffman Foundation Community Award; the Denver consul general of Mexico “Ohtli”; the Martin Luther King Jr. Colorado Humanitarian Award; and the Anti-Defamation League's inaugural Boulder Community Builder Award.
“Having alternative currencies is great, right, because, historically, government's had a monopoly on currency. At the end of the day, why should only politicians—either directly or indirectly—control the currency? We can reduce transaction cost, provide an alternative, and—look, I don't know whether it'll be Bitcoin or not—but I think the concept of digital currencies is here to stay, and the fact that a politician would write to try to ban them in their infancy is just the wrong way to go about it. Let the market determine whether there's any value there or not.”

Jeff Bezos
1964 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· Best known as the founder, CEO, and president of Amazon, Bezos is an American internet and aerospace entrepreneur, media proprietor, and investor. The first centi-billionaire on the Forbes wealth index, Bezos was named the “richest man in modern history” after his net worth increased to $150 billion in July 2018. In September 2018, Forbes described him as “far richer than anyone else on the planet” as he added $1.8 billion to his net worth when Amazon became the second company in history to reach a market cap of $1 trillion.
· Bezos supported the electoral campaigns of U.S. senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, two Democratic U.S. senators from Washington. He has also supported U.S. representative John Conyers, as well as Patrick Leahy and Spencer Abraham, U.S. senators serving on committees dealing with Internet-related issues.
· Bezos has supported the legalization of same-sex marriage, and in 2012 contributed $2.5 million to a group supporting a yes vote on Washington Referendum 74, which affirmed same-sex marriage.
· After the 2016 presidential election, Bezos was invited to join Donald Trump's Defense Innovation Advisory Board, an advisory council to improve the technology used by the Defense Department. Bezos declined the offer without further comment.
· In September 2018, Business Insider reported that Bezos was the only one of the top five billionaires in the world who had not signed the Giving Pledge, an initiative created by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett that encourage wealthy people to give away their wealth.
“Percentage margins don't matter. What matters always is dollar margins: the actual dollar amount. Companies are valued not on their percentage margins, but on how many dollars they actually make, and a multiple of that.”
“We have the resources to build room for a trillion humans in this solar system, and when we have a trillion humans, we'll have a thousand Einsteins and a thousand Mozarts. It will be a way more interesting place to live.”

Jens Weidmann
1968 – Present Born: Germany Resides: Germany
· German economist and president of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Chairman of the Board of the Bank for International Settlements. From 1997 to 1999, Weidmann worked at the International Monetary Fund. In 2006, he began serving as Head of Division IV (Economic and Financial Policy) in the Federal Chancellery. He was the chief negotiator of the Federal Republic of Germany for both the summits of the G8 and the G20. He was given the 2016 Medal for Extraordinary Merits for Bavaria in a United Europe.
· Weidmann was involved in a series of major decisions in response to the financial crisis in Germany and Europe: preventing the meltdown of the bank Hypo Real Estate, guaranteeing German deposits and implementing a rescue programme for the banking system, piecing together two fiscal-stimulus programmes, and setting up the Greek bail-out package and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
· In a 2011 speech, Weidmann criticized the errors and “many years of wrong developments” of the European Monetary Union (EMU) peripheral states, particularly the wasted opportunity represented by their “disproportionate investment in private home-building, high government spending or private consumption”. In May, 2012, Weidmann's stance was characterized by US economist and columnist Paul Krugman as amounting to wanting to destroy the Euro. In 2016, Weidmann dismissed deflation in light of the European Central Bank's current stimulus program, pointing out the healthy condition of the German economy and that the euro area is not that bad off.
“I share the concerns regarding monetary policy that is too loose for too long. … As you know I have concerns about granting emergency liquidity on account of the fact that the banks are not doing everything to improve their liquidity situation.”

Jerome Powell
1953 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· Current Chair of the Federal Reserve, nominated by Trump. Powell has faced substantial and repeated criticism from Trump after his confirmation. The Senate Banking Committee approved Powell's nomination in a 22–1 vote, with Senator Elizabeth Warren casting the lone dissenting vote.
· Powell briefly served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance under George H. W. Bush in 1992. He has served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2012. He is the first Chair of the Federal Reserve since 1987 not to hold a Ph.D. degree in Economics.
· Powell has described the Fed's role as nonpartisan and apolitical. Trump has criticized Powell for not massively lowering federal interest rates and instituting quantitative easing.
· The Bloomberg Intelligence Fed Spectrometer rated Powell as neutral (not dove nor hawk). Powell has been a skeptic of round 3 of quantitative easing, initiated in 2012, although he did vote in favor of implementation.
· Powell stated that higher capital and liquidity requirements and stress tests have made the financial system safer and must be preserved. However, he also stated that the Volcker Rule should be re-written to exclude smaller banks. Powell supports ample amounts of private capital to support housing finance activities.
“The Fed's organization reflects a long-standing desire in American history to ensure that power over our nation's monetary policy and financial system is not concentrated in a few hands, whether in Washington or in high finance or in any single group or constituency.”

John Cochrane
1957 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and economist, specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics.
· The central idea of Cochrane's research is that macroeconomics and finance should be linked, and a comprehensive theory needs to explain both 1.) how, given the observed prices and financial returns, households and firms decide on consumption, investment, and financing; and 2.) how, in equilibrium, prices and financial returns are determined by households and firms decisions.
· Cochrane is the author of ‘Asset Pricing,’ a widely used textbook in graduate courses on asset pricing. According to his own words, the organizing principle of the book is that everything can be traced back to specializations of a single equation: the basic pricing equation. Cochrane received the TIAA-CREF Institute Paul A. Samuelson Award for this book.
“Regulators and politicians aren’t nitwits. The libertarian argument that regulation is so dumb — which it surely is — misses the point that it is enacted by really smart people. The fact that the regulatory state is an ideal tool for the entrenchment of political power was surely not missed by its architects.”

John Keynes (John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes)
1883 – 1946 Born: England Died: England
· British economist, whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. Originally trained in mathematics, he built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles, and was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century. Widely considered the founder of modern macroeconomics, his ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots. Keynes was a lifelong member of the Liberal Party, which until the 1920s had been one of the two main political parties in the United Kingdom.
· During the 1930s Great Depression, Keynes challenged the ideas of neoclassical economics that held that free markets would, in the short to medium term, automatically provide full employment, as long as workers were flexible in their wage demands. He argued that aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) determined the overall level of economic activity, and that inadequate aggregate demand could lead to prolonged periods of high unemployment. Keynes advocated the use of fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the adverse effects of economic recessions and depressions.
· Keynes's influence started to wane in the 1970s, his ideas challenged by those who disputed the ability of government to favorably regulate the business cycle with fiscal policy. However, the advent of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 sparked a resurgence in Keynesian thought. Keynesian economics provided the theoretical underpinning for economic policies undertaken in response to the crisis by President Barack Obama of the United States, Prime Minister Gordon Brown of the United Kingdom, and other heads of governments.
· Keynes was vice-chairman of the Marie Stopes Society which provided birth control education and campaigned against job discrimination against women and unequal pay. He was an outspoken critic of laws against homosexuality. Keynes thought that the pursuit of money for its own sake was a pathological condition, and that the proper aim of work is to provide leisure. He wanted shorter working hours and longer holidays for all. Keynes was ultimately a successful investor, building up a private fortune.
“How can I accept the Communist doctrine, which sets up as its bible, above and beyond criticism, an obsolete textbook which I know not only to be scientifically erroneous but without interest or application to the modern world? How can I adopt a creed which, preferring the mud to the fish, exalts the boorish proletariat above the bourgeoisie and the intelligentsia, who with all their faults, are the quality of life and surely carry the seeds of all human achievement? Even if we need a religion, how can we find it in the turbid rubbish of the red bookshop? It is hard for an educated, decent, intelligent son of Western Europe to find his ideals here, unless he has first suffered some strange and horrid process of conversion which has changed all his values.”

John Locke
1632 – 1704 Born: England Died: England
· Known as the “Father of Liberalism,” Locke was an English philosopher and physician, widely regarded as one of the most influential of Enlightenment thinkers. His work greatly affected the development of epistemology and political philosophy. His writings influenced Voltaire and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, many Scottish Enlightenment thinkers, as well as the American revolutionaries. His contributions to classical republicanism and liberal theory are reflected in the United States Declaration of Independence.
· Locke's political theory was founded on social contract theory. Social contract arguments typically posit that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority (of the ruler, or to the decision of a majority) in exchange for protection of their remaining rights or maintenance of the social order.
· Locke advocated for governmental separation of powers and believed that revolution is not only a right but an obligation in some circumstances. Locke was vehemently opposed to slavery, calling it “vile and miserable … directly opposite to the generous Temper and Courage of our Nation.”
· Locke uses the word “property” in both broad and narrow senses. In a broad sense, it covers a wide range of human interests and aspirations; more narrowly, it refers to material goods. He argues that property is a natural right and it is derived from labour aand that the individual ownership of goods and property is justified by the labour exerted to produce those goods
· According to Locke, unused property is wasteful and an offence against nature, but, with the introduction of “durable” goods, men could exchange their excessive perishable goods for goods that would last longer and thus not offend the natural law. In his view, the introduction of money marks the culmination of this process, making possible the unlimited accumulation of property without causing waste through spoilage.
“The power of the legislative, being derived from the people by a positive voluntary grant and institution, can be no other than what that positive grant conveyed, which being only to make laws, and not to make legislators, the legislative can have no power to transfer their authority of making laws, and place it in other hands.”
“No man in civil society can be exempted from the laws of it: for if any man may do what he thinks fit, and there be no appeal on earth, for redress or security against any harm he shall do; I ask, whether he be not perfectly still in the state of nature, and so can be no part or member of that civil society; unless any one will say, the state of nature and civil society are one and the same thing, which I have never yet found any one so great a patron of anarchy as to affirm.”

John Mill (John Stuart Mill a.k.a. J. S. Mill)
1806 – 1873 Born: England Died: France
· John Stuart Mill was arguably the most influential English speaking philosopher of the nineteenth century. He was a naturalist, a utilitarian, and a liberal, whose work explores the consequences of a thoroughgoing empiricist outlook. In doing so, he sought to combine the best of eighteenth-century Enlightenment thinking with newly emerging currents of nineteenth-century Romantic and historical philosophy. His most important works include System of Logic (1843), On Liberty (1859), Utilitarianism (1861) and An Examination of Sir William Hamilton’s Philosophy (1865).
· Mill's conception of liberty justified the freedom of the individual in opposition to unlimited state and social control. A member of the Liberal Party and author of the early feminist work The Subjection of Women (in which he also condemned slavery), he was also the second Member of Parliament to call for women's suffrage after Henry Hunt in 1832.
· Mill, an employee for the British East India Company from 1823 to 1858, argued in support of what he called a “benevolent despotism” with regard to the colonies. Mill argued that “To suppose that the same international customs, and the same rules of international morality, can obtain between one civilized nation and another, and between civilized nations and barbarians, is a grave error. ... To characterize any conduct whatever towards a barbarous people as a violation of the law of nations, only shows that he who so speaks has never considered the subject.”
· John Stuart Mill believed in the philosophy of Utilitarianism, which he described as the principle that holds “that actions are right in the proportion as they tend to promote happiness [intended pleasure, and the absence of pain], wrong as they tend to produce the reverse of happiness [pain, and the privation of pleasure].” Mill asserts that even when we value virtues for selfish reasons we are in fact cherishing them as a part of our happiness.
· Mill's early economic philosophy was one of free markets. However, he accepted interventions in the economy, such as a tax on alcohol, if there were sufficient utilitarian grounds. Mill originally believed that “equality of taxation” meant “equality of sacrifice” and that progressive taxation penalized those who worked harder and saved more. Given an equal tax rate regardless of income, Mill agreed that inheritance should be taxed.
· His main objection of socialism was on that of what he saw its destruction of competition. According to Mill, a socialist society would only be attainable through the provision of basic education for all, promoting economic democracy instead of capitalism, in the manner of substituting capitalist businesses with worker cooperatives.
· Mill's major work on political democracy defends two fundamental principles at slight odds with each other: extensive participation by citizens and enlightened competence of rulers. He believed that the incompetence of the masses could eventually be overcome if they were given a chance to take part in politics, especially at the local level.
· Mill is one of the few political philosophers ever to serve in government as an elected official. In his three years in Parliament, he was more willing to compromise than the “radical” principles expressed in his writing would lead one to expect.
“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that. His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion... Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them...he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form.”
“The only freedom which deserves the name is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs, or impede their efforts to obtain it. Each is the proper guardian of his own health, whether bodily, or mental or spiritual. Mankind are greater gainers by suffering each other to live as seems good to themselves, than by compelling each to live as seems good to the rest.”

John Rawls
1921 – 2002 Born: United States Died: United States
· Liberal American moral and political philosopher who received both the Schock Prize for Logic and Philosophy and the National Humanities Medal in 1999, the latter presented by President Bill Clinton, who acclaimed Rawls for having “helped a whole generation of learned Americans revive their faith in democracy itself.” He is frequently cited by the courts of law in the United States and Canada.
· Rawls's most discussed work is his theory of a just liberal society, called justice as fairness. Rawls first wrote about this theory in his book A Theory of Justice. Rawls spoke much about the desire for a well-ordered society; a society of free and equal persons cooperating on fair terms of social cooperation.
· Rawls’s most important principle (the Liberty Principal) states that every individual has an equal right to basic liberties. Rawls believes that “personal property” constitutes a basic liberty, but an absolute right to unlimited private property is not.
· Rawls's argument for his principles of social justice uses a thought experiment called the “original position”, in which people select what kind of society they would choose to live under if they did not know which social position they would personally occupy.
“Justice is the first virtue of social institutions, as truth is of systems of thought. A theory however elegant and economical must be rejected or revised if it is untrue; likewise laws and institutions no matter how efficient and well-arranged must be reformed or abolished if they are unjust. Each person possesses an inviolability founded on justice that even the welfare of society as a whole cannot override. For this reason justice denies that the loss of freedom for some is made right by a greater good shared by others. It does not allow that the sacrifices imposed on a few are outweighed by the larger sum of advantages enjoyed by many. Therefore in a just society the liberties of equal citizenship are taken as settled; the rights secured by justice are not subject to political bargaining or to the calculus of social interests.”

Joseph Nye
1937 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· American political scientist and co-founder of the international relations theory of neoliberalism (a theory concerned first and foremost with absolute gains rather than relative gains to other states), developed in the 1977 book Power and Interdependence. He is noted for his notion of “smart power” (“the ability to combine hard and soft power into a successful strategy”), which became a popular phrase with the Clinton and Obama Administrations.
· Secretary of State John Kerry appointed Nye to the Foreign Affairs Policy Board in 2014. In 2014, Nye was awarded the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star in recognition of his “contribution to the development of studies on Japan-U.S. security and to the promotion of the mutual understanding between Japan and the United States.”
· From 1977 to 1979, Nye was Deputy to the Undersecretary of State for Security Assistance, Science, and Technology and chaired the National Security Council Group on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In recognition of his service, he was awarded the State Department's Distinguished Honor Award in 1979. In 1993 and 1994, he was Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, which coordinates intelligence estimates for the President, and was awarded the Intelligence Community's Distinguished Service Medal. In the Clinton Administration from 1994 to 1995, Nye served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, and was awarded the Department's Distinguished Service Medal with Oak Leaf Cluster. Nye was considered by many to be the preferred choice for National Security Advisor in the 2004 presidential campaign of John Kerry.
· Nye has been a member of the Harvard faculty since 1964. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences and a foreign fellow of The British Academy. Nye is also a member of the American Academy of Diplomacy. The 2011 TRIP survey of over 1700 international relations scholars ranks Joe Nye as the sixth most influential scholar in the field of international relations in the past twenty years. He was also ranked as most influential in American foreign policy. In 2011, Foreign Policy magazine named him to its list of top global thinkers. In September 2014, Foreign Policy reported that the international relations scholars and policymakers both ranked Nye as one of the most influential scholars.
“When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction. Seduction is always more effective than coercion, and many values like democracy, human rights, and individual opportunities are deeply seductive.”

Karl Popper
1902 – 1994 Born: Austria-Hungary Died: England
· Karl Popper is generally regarded as one of the greatest philosophers of science of the 20th century. He was a self-professed critical-rationalist, a dedicated opponent of all forms of scepticism, conventionalism, and relativism in science and in human affairs generally and a committed advocate and staunch defender of the ‘Open Society’.
· In ‘The Open Society and Its Enemies’ and ‘The Poverty of Historicism’, Popper developed a critique of historicism and a defense of the “Open Society”. Popper considered historicism to be the theory that history develops inexorably and necessarily according to knowable general laws towards a determinate end. He argued that this view is the principal theoretical presupposition underpinning most forms of authoritarianism and totalitarianism. He argued that historicism is founded upon mistaken assumptions regarding the nature of scientific law and prediction. Since the growth of human knowledge is a causal factor in the evolution of human history, and since “no society can predict, scientifically, its own future states of knowledge”, it follows, he argued, that there can be no predictive science of human history. For Popper, metaphysical and historical indeterminism go hand in hand.
· Popper is known for his vigorous defense of liberal democracy and the principles of social criticism that he believed made a flourishing open society possible. His political philosophy embraced ideas from major democratic political ideologies, including socialism/social democracy, libertarianism/classical liberalism and conservatism, and attempted to reconcile them.
“Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. In this formulation, I do not imply, for instance, that we should always suppress the utterance of intolerant philosophies; as long as we can counter them by rational argument and keep them in check by public opinion, suppression would certainly be most unwise. But we should claim the right to suppress them if necessary even by force; for it may easily turn out that they are not prepared to meet us on the level of rational argument, but begin by denouncing all argument; they may forbid their followers to listen to rational argument, because it is deceptive, and teach them to answer arguments by the use of their fists or pistols. We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant. We should claim that any movement preaching intolerance places itself outside the law, and we should consider incitement to intolerance and persecution as criminal, in the same way as we should consider incitement to murder, or to kidnapping, or to the revival of the slave trade, as criminal.”

Lawrence Summers
1954 – Present Born: United States Resides: United States
· American economist, former Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank, senior U.S. Treasury Department official throughout President Clinton's administration, Treasury Secretary 1999–2001, and former director of the National Economic Council for President Obama (2009–2010). Summers served as the 27th President of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006. Current professor and director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.
· As a researcher, Summers has made important contributions in many areas of economics, primarily public finance, labor economics, financial economics, and macroeconomics. Summers has also worked in international economics, economic demography, economic history and development economics.[ He received the John Bates Clark Medal in 1993 from the American Economic Association. In 1987, he was the first social scientist to win the Alan T. Waterman Award from the National Science Foundation. Summers is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
· In 1983, at age 28, Summers became one of the youngest tenured professors in Harvard's history. In 2006, Summers resigned as Harvard's president in the wake of a no-confidence vote by Harvard faculty. Summers viewed his beliefs on why science and engineering had an under-representation of women to be a large part in the vote, saying, “There is a great deal of absurd political correctness. Now, I'm somebody who believes very strongly in diversity, who resists racism in all of its many incarnations, who thinks that there is a great deal that's unjust in American society that needs to be combated, but it seems to be that there is a kind of creeping totalitarianism in terms of what kind of ideas are acceptable and are debatable on college campuses.”
· As the World Bank's Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist, Summers played a role in designing strategies to aid developing countries, worked on the bank's loan committee, guided the bank's research and statistics operations, and guided external training programs. The World Bank's official site reports that Summer's research included an “influential” report that demonstrated a very high return from investments in educating girls in developing nations. According to The Economist, Summers was “often at the centre of heated debates” about economic policy, to an extent exceptional for the history of the World Bank in recent decades.
· In 1999 Summers endorsed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act which removed the separation between investment and commercial banks. In February 2009, Summers quoted John Maynard Keynes, saying “When circumstances change, I change my opinion”, reflecting both on the failures of Wall Street deregulation and his new leadership role in the government bailout.
submitted by learnactreform to neoliberal [link] [comments]

Life is so complicated, could really use some help.

TL;DR at the end. 24, M.
When I was in my first year of college, one of my 'friends' started spreading lies about me. Let's call him Edward. He was a part of a group of toxic friends that I had up until a few years ago. I believe some of them held a bit of a grudge against me for checking out their 'girlfriends' profiles on Facebook (Edward got my password in first year of college). The thing is they weren't in serious relationships, I didn't even know they were dating. Also, Edward was the person who was most upset by this. I only realised recently how insecure of a person he is.
Second year of college was going well for me academically, and this upset Edward even more. That's when the lies got downright brutal. One of my other friends Troy told me a 'rumour' about someone who was a good friend of his but I didn't know as well. Let's call him Jim. Troy said that Jim was raped at a house party that had happened almost a year ago at my friend's house. Troy was smiling the entire time he told me. Smiling. That his friend was raped. Wtf. I knew this had to be another one of Edwards schemes. They must have been going around saying that I raped Jim. It was so retarded I was sure nobody would believe it, but it wouldn't stop people from talking. The friend of mine who had the house party was a part of a group of college friends that I had made in first year so I presume this lie was to start to disrupt my social life outside of this toxic group of friends. I saw all of these antics as really insecure and petty to be honest. Since I'm not a gossip, I had no clue how much all of this was going to interfere in my life.
Right when second semester of second year had rolled around, the toxic friends introduced me to some new people. We'll call them the 'townies'. These guys were rough. They had dozens of criminal offences they were being charged for between them and they were starting to hang around at my friend Ryan's house (the one who threw the party). There is a ‘party week’ in my college where everybody goes crazy and takes drugs all week. During this week, A LOT of comments were made around me that made me understand how badly all of these lies were affecting my life. I understood that week that these ‘townies’ were hired to bring harm to me. One of them in particular was in a lot of debt, and so I put two and two together; he needed money from my toxic friends to keep his kneecaps.
I finally had enough of the situation and tried to get out of my friend's house towards the end of the week, they wouldn't let me go anywhere alone. I had to text my brother and tell him to come down to the house so that we could go to the ATM for him to lend me some money. My brother walks into the house with the money and I hear someone say "oh shit we can't that's his brother". At that point I didn't care if he had the money there, I just walked towards the door telling my brother "let's go", acting as if I needed more (I hadn’t asked for much anyway).
We get back to my brother's house and I tell him about all of the retards that had been spreading lies about me, for what I now understand, was since my first year of college. He neglected the fact that they had spiked me, instead he asked me; “If there was one lie that you felt they were using against you what would it be?” I tell him the lie that Troy told me about Jim. He immediately goes downstairs and starts talking to his roommate. My brother was being weird at this point, but I figured he just wanted to let his roommate know what was up. When he got back upstairs, he kept going on about mental disorders saying that he had issues with them in the past, that he had studied them. I try not to think negatively about people with mental disorders, but knowing that was not what I was going through, I was pretty furious. The last thing I needed was for people to go around saying that I was crazy. Since my brother didn't listen I decided to keep my friends close and my enemies closer and kept hanging around at Ryan's house.
(Excuse the digression, the following narration is only necessary because the people in my life are so shitty that the context will get confusing otherwise):
Since then my brother continued to ignore the lying dickheads, started gossiping about the lies to his friends, stole my idea to invest my mother's 250,000 euro settlement in Bitcoin (don't know exactly when but somewhere between 2016-17) realized he is the cuntiest of brothers for doing so, and continued to push the whole mental disorder thing. He even shouted at me on mother's day of all days "stop talking about Bitcoin recklessnowleopard" (which at the time was the best investment opportunity going). Things only got worse.
In late July 2017, my brother and I were walking drunk along the river in my hometown when he said he wanted to stop and look at it. The river is notoriously dangerous, and he knew the scumbags that were hanging around at Ryan’s house had made references to throwing people in there while they were around me. He said: "She looks awful powerful tonight".
"Sure does", I replied.
"Not many people who go in there come out you know", he said next.
I was shocked. How the fuck could he say that? Especially when there was a 200% increase in 'suicides' via the river right around the time that all of these criminals were talking about throwing people in. He didn't just disrespect them, he showed me that he didn't care at all about my mental health. Then he said: "There's plenty of them in Utrecht". Cunt. That's where I was going on a study abroad semester. Now he was really fucking with my head.
After this I didn't want to have anything to do with my brother, but my mother would not listen to anything I was telling her. I had proved many times that he was acting crazy, lying to me and her, involving his friends in his lies, putting my life at risk. Nothing was right. I started seeing a psychologist (which was going very well) and while we were having a group session with my Mom, I mentioned the price of Bitcoin, that it was now 4000 euro. My mom's jaw dropped. This is when I realized that my Mom went through the same sequence as my brother. She started to gossip and then couldn't admit to being a shit mother, and my investment idea made a shit-ton of money, and they freaked out. Mom said in that meeting that she was “never, ever going to come back for another one”, and now wanted me to go to a mental health unit, or psych-ward, for "at least three months". What a bitch. She got her wish in the end after lying to my GP.
The psychiatrists did absolutely nothing but keep me there for three weeks which ruined my first semester back at college. Then my brother hired a bunch of hackers to ruin my semester abroad in the Netherlands. I was forced to drop out of college in the Netherlands and find work. I once again went the 'keep your friends close and enemies closer' route and somewhat befriended the hackers (one of them also owed me money). It didn't work out quite as well this time around since they were able to ruin two jobs that I enjoyed, but I needed something that would help get me out of this situation for good. In the end, I was drugged with crack, or some form of amphetamines, and ended up in a canal. This happened on my brother's fucking birthday (almost a year to the day from when he said “there’s plenty of them in Utrecht”. I can't recall exactly how I ended up in the canal, but I remember thinking that my roommate from where I was living in the Netherlands was in the canal and needed help. Whatever I was drugged with made things hazy though. I regained my senses in a hospital bed surrounded by doctor's, nurses, policemen, all speaking Dutch and freaking me the fuck out. I eventually calmed down and the world started to make sense again.
The next day they wanted a 24 hour urine sample and gave me a catheter. Fuck catheters. I stayed one more day and then I really wanted to leave. I noticed that they had my name down wrong on my wrist band so I decided to just gather my things and walk out of there. The Dutch doctor's looked at me as if to say 'where in the fuck do you think you're going as I was striding down the corridor. "That's not how you spell my last name and so technically I have not been admitted properly here. I'm leaving". The Dutch usually finding it difficult to disagree with anything rational, they let me walk on.
I strode nervously passed the security guards on the bottom floor who flew past me smiling on electric scooters (Dutch people), and walked out into the open area of the city called the ‘Uitof’. It was around a fifteen minutes cycle back to the city centre, (the Uitof is a strangely built up section of the city I was staying in that is somewhat detached from the rest). I was dreading what was bound to be around a forty minute walk, possibly more, when I saw an old tattered bike that was left unlocked. In the Netherlands, these bikes are actually okay to take. I hopped on it and started making my way back to the city centre. It broke about half way. Just my luck.
I eventually got back to the hostel that I was staying at when I first moved to the Netherlands and the receptionist was nice enough to let me stay there a while. I was beginning to make a plan to sort out my life. I still had enough money to get back to my home country. I was not about to do that before getting a prostitute though, since the lies that had been told about me for what was at that time 3-4 years had stopped me from losing my virginity. Then my family showed up and got me admitted to another mental health unit. I spent three weeks in that mental health unit, and was only allowed to go home under the conditions that my psychiatrist back home, who had been contacted by the mental health unit in Utrecht, contacted me when I arrived back.
When I got back home my psychiatrist from my home country refused to meet with me or even get on the phone with me. The social worker of the mental health unit in my hometown contacted me continuously though. He had an uncertainty in his voice every time I got on the phone with him. He said that since I had been unadmitted from the mental health unit in the Netherlands, I was not a being treated under the mental health act in my home country. Why were they calling me then?
I tried to get back to college to finish my final year but I did not want to live at home with my mother who was the one who allowed my brother to steal my idea to invest. My brother and mother are both massive gossips, most in my country are, and so by this time it was obvious to me my brother used the lie that Troy had told me to go around and lie about his little brother for his toxic friends so that nobody would know that I went to him for help and he fucked up. Cunt. I thought maybe they were just waiting till I finished college to tell me they invested, and that it was my friends who organised the attempted murder. All of this stress led to an argument with my Mom which led to me being admitted to the mental health unit again.
I eventually got back to college and am currently receiving great marks. Second semester has just started and I am doing okay but things are a bit stressful. I received a message from one of the people that I met in the Netherlands saying that they were sorry if they brought me any harm. They are so far the only person out of all the dickheads that have tried to lie me to death to apologise, so I accepted knowing they were lied to and didn't start the lies so it's not as bad. I responded saying that I know the people who are really at fault and it's enough to hate them. Then they said that the receptionist at the hostel (that my brother booked) is one of the people I should hate. That I didn’t expect. She was a nice woman, but this made my rethink how suggestable, susceptible; vulnerable that people are.
I took my time with this information but eventually I went to the college councillors with it. They wouldn't record the evidence. WTF. Then I went to the police liaison at my college with the evidence. She started to bullshit about how it wasn't clear to her what link there was to my brother. I told her again that he booked the hostel, and that the message clearly shows that the receptionist was part of a group of people who brought harm to me (drugs + canal), and that this mysteriously happened on his birthday, almost exactly a year after he essentially threatened me or at least "predicted" that I would end up in a canal in Utrecht. The liaison is in denial, even about the spike in 'suicides' in 2016. She argued about the yearly figures and then back tracked when I brought up Q1 2016. There is no doubt she and the counsellor at the college both took bribes. She also called my other (half) siblings, who also followed the path of cunt, and were now committed to sharing stealing my idea.
The liaison eventually told me she would contact Interpol because since I was drugged in the Netherlands it wasn't for her to deal with. That would have been ‘fair enough’, had she not set up what was essentially an ambush. They were trying to admit me to the hospital again. The liaison is a former psychiatric nurse. Go figure. This time however, I knew my rights well enough and they only got me in to see a psychiatrist who had to let me go even though he tried desperately to admit me.
By now my whole greedy cunting family is acting like my toxic friends, and the situation is at a point where it has reached an exponential point of anxiety and pressure; I don’t really feel it seeing as it is so bad already that any new anxiety or pressure is comparatively nothing. It is only a matter of time before they are fucked. My other brother even said in the meeting with the liaison that "plenty of people have their ideas stolen". It was as good as an admission of guilt if only the cunt of a police woman didn't take a fucking bribe.
Now my original psychiatrist is asking if I have "spoken to any other agencies". She has tried to admit me again and said that she will "organize an involuntary admission" which is illegal. She is shitting bricks since she got the situation wrong and I think now is the best time for me to finally get out of this shitty situation but everyone I go to for help is taking bribes (I'd assume the hackers have something to do with that). What would you guys do?
Tl;dr: Toxic friends lie about me, brother starts gossiping about the lies. Then brother steals my idea to invest 250,000 euro in Bitcoin and tries to have me killed on his birthday by drugging me with crack and hoping that I would drown in a canal after 'predicting' it a year before. Now he is using the money from my idea to bribe everyone I go to for help.
submitted by recklessnowleopard to Advice [link] [comments]

My life is on survival mode. What would you do?

When I was in my first year of college, one of my 'friends' started spreading lies about me. Let's call him Edward. He was a part of a group of toxic friends that I had up until a few years ago. I believe some of them held a bit of a grudge against me for checking out their 'girlfriends' profiles on Facebook (Edward got my password in first year of college). The thing is they weren't in serious relationships, I didn't even know they were dating. Also, Edward was the person who was most upset by this. I only realised recently how insecure of a person he is.
Second year of college was going well for me academically, and this upset Edward even more. That's when the lies got downright brutal. One of my other friends George told me a 'rumour' about someone who was a good friend of his but I didn't know as well. Let's call him Jim. George said that Jim was raped at a house party that had happened almost a year ago at my friend's house. George was smiling the entire time he told me. Smiling. That his friend was raped. Wtf. I knew this had to be another one of Edwards schemes. They must have been going around saying that I raped Jim. It was so retarded I was sure nobody would believe it, but it wouldn't stop people from talking. The friend of mine who had the house party was a part of a group of college friends that I had made in first year so I presume this lie was to start to disrupt my social life outside of this toxic group of friends. I saw all of these antics as really insecure and petty to be honest. Since I'm not a gossip, I had no clue how much all of this was going to interfere in my life.
Right when second semester of second year had rolled around, the toxic friends introduced me to some new people. We'll call them the 'townies'. These guys were rough. They had dozens of criminal offences they were being charged for between them and they were starting to hang around at my friend Ryan's house (the one who threw the party). There is a party week in my college where everybody goes crazy and takes drugs all week. During this week, A LOT of comments were made around me that made me understand how badly all of these lies were affecting my life. I understood that week that these townies were hired to bring harm to me. One of them in particular was in a lot of debt, and so I put two and two together; he needed money from my toxic friends to keep his kneecaps.
I finally had enough of the situation and got out of my friend's house, they wouldn't let me go anywhere alone. I had to text my brother and tell him to come down to the house so that we could go to the ATM for him to lend me some money. My brother walks into the house with the money and I here someone say "oh shit we can't that's his brother". At that point I didn't care if he had the money there I just walked towards the door telling my brother "let's go", acting as if I needed more money or some shit.
We get back to my brother's house and I tell him about all of the retards that had been spreading lies about me for what I now understand was years. He neglected the fact that they had spiked me and asked me if there was one lie that I felt they were using against me what would it be. I tell him the lie that George told me about Jim. Then he goes downstairs and starts talking to his roommate. My brother was being just as retarded as my friend's were. He kept going on about mental disorders saying that he had issues with them in the past, that he had studied them. I try not to thing negatively about people with mental disorders, but knowing that was not what I was going through I was pretty furious. The last thing I needed was for people to go around saying that I was crazy. Since my brother didn't listen I decided to keep my friends close and my enemies closer and kept hanging around at Ryan's house.
Since then my brother continued to ignore the lying dickheads, started gossiping about me himself, stole my idea to invest my mother's 250,000 euro settlement in Bitcoin (don't know exactly when but somewhere between 2016-17) realized he is a shitty brother for doing so, and continued to push the whole mental disorder thing. He even shouted at me on mother's day of all days "stop talking about Bitcoin AdultMNTurtle" (which at the time was the best investment opportunity going). It actually gets worse. In late July 2017, my brother and I were walking drunk along the river in my hometown when he said he wanted to stop and look at it. The river is notoriously dangerous, and he knew the scumbags that were hanging around at Ryans house had made references to throwing people in there while they were around me. He said: "She looks awful powerful tonight". "Sure does", I replied. "Not many people who go in there come out you know", he said next. I was shocked. How the fuck could he say that? Especially when there was a 200% increase in 'suicides' via the river right around the time that all of these criminals were talking about throwing people in. He didn't just disrespect them, he showed me that he didn't care at all about my 'mental health'. Then he said: "There's plenty of them in Utrecht". Cunt. That's where I was going on a study abroad semester. Now he was really fucking with my head.
After this I didn't want to have anything to do with my brother, but my mother would not listen to anything I was telling her. I had proved many times that he was acting crazy, lying to me and her, and even putting my life at risk. Something wasn't right. I started seeing a psychologist and while we were having a meeting with my Mom there also I mentioned the price of Bitcoin, that it was now 4000 euro. My mom's jaw dropped. This is when I realized that my Mom went through the same sequence as my brother. She started to gossip and then couldn't admit to being a shit mother and my investment idea made a shit-ton of money and they freaked out. Mom said in that meeting that she now wanted me to go to a mental health unit, or psych-ward, for "at least three months". What a bitch. She got her wish in the end after lying to my GP.
The psychiatrists did absolutely nothing but keep me there for three weeks which ruined my first semester back at college. Then my brother hired a bunch of hackers to ruin my semester abroad in the Netherlands. I was forced to drop out of college in the Netherlands and find work. I once again went the 'keep your friends close and enemies closer' route and somewhat befriended the hackers (one of them also owed me money). It didn't work out quite as well this time around since they were able to ruin two jobs that I enjoyed, but I needed something that would help get me out of this situation for good. In the end, I was drugged with crack or some form of amphetamines and ended up in a canal. This happened on my brother's fucking birthday. I can't recall exactly how I ended up in the canal as whatever I was drugged with started to have more and more serious effects. I regained my senses in a hospital bed surrounded by doctor's, nurses, policemen, all speaking Dutch and freaking me the fuck out. I eventually calmed down and the world started to make sense again.
The next day they wanted a 24 hour urine sample and gave me a catheter. Fuck catheters. I stayed one more day and then I really wanted to leave. I noticed that they had my name down wrong on my wrist band so I decided to just gather my things and walk out of there. The Dutch doctor's looked at me as if to say 'where in the fuck do you think you're going as I was striding down the corridor. "That's not how you spell my last name and so technically I have not been admitted properly here. I'm leaving". The Dutch usually finding it difficult to disagree with anything rational, they let me walk on.
I strode nervously passed the security guards on the bottom floor who flew past me smiling on electric scooters (fuckin Dutch people), and walked out into the open area of the city called the Uitof. It was around a fifteen minutes cycle back to the city centre, (the Uitof is a strangely built up section of the city I was staying in that is somewhat detached from the rest). I was dreading what was bound to be around a forty minute walk, possibly more, when I saw an old tattered bike that was left unlocked. In the Netherlands, these bikes are actually okay to take. I hopped on it and started making my way back to the city centre. It broke about half way. Fuck.
I eventually got back to the hostel that I was staying at when I first moved to the Netherlands and the receptionist was nice enough to let me stay there a while. I was beginning to make a plan to sort out my life. I still had enough money to get back to my home country. I was not about to do that before getting a prostitute though, since the lies that had been told about me for what was at that time 3-4 years had stopped me from losing my virginity. Then my family showed up and got me admitted to another mental health unit. Fuck.
When I got back home my psychiatrist from my home country was supposed to meet with me and discuss everything that happened. She refused to even get on the phone with me. The only reason they let me leave the mental health unit in the Netherlands was because they had contacted her and arranged for her to meet with me. I tried to get back to college to finish my final year but I did not want to live at home with my mother who was the one who allowed my brother to steal my idea to invest. She and my brother are both massive gossips, most in my country are, and so my brother must have used the lie that George had told me to go around and lie about his little brother for his toxic friends so that nobody would know that I went to him for help and he fucked up. Cunt. All of this stress led to an argument with my Mom which led to me being admitted to the mental health unit again. Such bullshit.
I eventually got back to college and am currently receiving great marks. Second semester has just started and I am doing okay but things are a bit stressful. I received a message from one of the people that I met in the Netherlands saying that they were sorry if they brought me any harm. They are so far the only person out of all the dickheads that have tried to lie me to death to apologise, so I accepted knowing they were lied to and didn't start the lies so it's not as bad. I responded saying that I know the people who are really at fault and it's enough to hate them. Then they said that the receptionist at the hostel (that my brother booked) is one of the people I should hate.
I took my time with this information but eventually I went to the college councilors with it. They wouldn't record the evidence. WTF. Then I went to the police liason at my college with the evidence. She started to bullshit about how it wasn't clear to her what link there was to my brother. I told her again that he booked the hostel and that the message clearly shows that the receptionist was part of a group of people who brought harm to me (drugs + canal), and that this mysteriously happened on his birthday almost exactly a year after he essentially threatened me or at least "predicted" that I would end up in a canal in Utrecht. The liason is in denial, even about the spike in 'suicides' in 2016. There is no doubt she and the counsellor at the college both took bribes. The liason eventually told me she would contact Interpol because since I was drugged in the Netherlands it wasn't for her to deal with. That was fair enough but she told me this after calling two of my other siblings who arrived half an hour into my meeting with her (they live more than an hour away). It was an ambush really. They were trying to admit me to the hospital again. This time however, I knew my rights well enough and they only got me in to see a psychiatrist who had to let me go even though he tried desperately to admit me.
By now my whole greedy cunting family is acting like my toxic friends, it is so fucked up. However, it is only a matter of time before they are fucked. My other brother even said in the meeting with the liason that "plenty of people have there ideas stolen". It was as good as an admission of guilt if only the cunt of a police woman didn't take a fucking bribe.
Now my original psychiatrist is asking if I have "spoken to any other agencies". She has tried to admit me again and said that she will "organize an involuntary admission" which is illegal. She is shitting bricks since she got the situation wrong and I think now is the best time for me to finally get out of this shitty situation but everyone I go to for help is taking bribes (I'd assume the hackers have something to do with that).
What would you guys do?
Tl;dr: Toxic friends lie about me, brother starts gossiping about the lies. Then brother steals my idea to invest 250,000 euro in Bitcoin and tries to have me killed on his birthday by drugging me with crack and hoping I would drown in a canal after 'predicting' it a year before. Now he is using the money from my idea to bribe everyone I go to for help.
submitted by AdultMNTurtle to Advice [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

If you just hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

TL;DR: There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 secondary coins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Hyper-Bitcoinization Will Happen In 2022. Here’s Why.

-or-
Cryptocurrencies Will See The Greatest Bull Run From 2018 to 2022. Here’s Why.
  1. Stock market and crypto and lots of things right now are very high right? Looks like a bubble. Hold that thought.
  2. Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-1% in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
  3. We know that before the 2008 crash, the Fed interest rate was 5%. So 1% possibly means we are currently far away from a bubble pop. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
  4. The typical credit micro-cycle lasts from 5-8 years, according to this video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
  5. We know that from 2009-2016, the FED Interest Rate was basically 0%. This means that during that time, the economy was “de-leveraging” (people were unwinding their debt obligations, this takes time). This means that the de-leverage cycle lasted about 6 years. And that 2016 was the start of a new leveraging cycle. If this is the case, then we are now not at bubble peak. Bubble will burst...2016 + 2.5 or 4 years. maybe even longer. If we ASSUME that leveraging will take 6 years, that puts us in 2022 when the bubble pops (the wealth transition period the time traveller talks about), this is almost in-line with what the reddit time traveller said in 2013! https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  6. When the bubble pops in 2019-2022 (we don’t know the exact year), crypto will be a mature asset. It will also be very expensive, because during the bubble years (2017 to 2022), everyone would be using immense credit to buy crypto, driving it’s price up right? (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/people-are-taking-out-mortgages-to-buy-bitcoin-says-joseph-borg.html) Why do I say it’s an asset? Because people right now mostly buy crypto to HODL, in the expectation of future increase in price. This makes it behave more like a commodity, or asset, than a currency, for now.
  7. When the economic bubble pops in 2019-2022, I believe there could be 2 outcomes:
Outcome A. People sell crypto assets to pay their debts, just like the housing bubble caused the foreclosure of homes. Crypto declines in price or crashes. See what happened in 2013, when the first Bitcoin bubble popped.
Outcome B. Because crypto is so expensive, in 2022, and the value of fiat has collapsed so much...people decide to switch over to crypto. They prefer to escape the current system, rather than feed it. Crypto at this point has also matured and solved the scaling issues, through layer 2, better algorithms, maybe the hashgraph, or the lightning network. This allows Crypto to now begin to function as a currency, in addition to being a store of value! A new ruling class is created from the top 1% of people who own crypto. This is hyperbitcoinisation. B also means that conversion to crypto might happen faster than we think. It also means the rich poor gap could become even more huge! Crypto doesn’t solve the wealth distribution issue. In fact it could make it worse. https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95
This is my worry: A complete solution for our world economy, must be a Crypto or a Constitution that also solves the wealth distribution issue. Bitcoin does not do this, neither does any crypto currency available today, I feel. I suggest taking some guidance from Permaculture on this, how to build a self-sustaining, stable system, by matching inputs and outputs. It is clear to me at least, that our simplistic economic models are unable achieve this at present.
Addendum: I make no predictions for the future price of Crypto or Bitcoin. However there are many people out there on Twitter that predict 1 BTC will be 500k or more around 2020. Assuming that Bitcoin 10x every 2 years, 1 million USD per BTC in 2022, is not too far-fetched.
The blockchain is a wonderful tool, however like a double-edged sword, it is up to us humans to change to become better, wiser. Otherwise it’s like giving a loaded gun to a child, the societal implications of hyper-bitcoinisation are enormous, and we need to manage them properly in order to ensure fairness and civility for all.
submitted by tsangyoujun to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

06-04 00:34 - 'Bitcoin, trade wars, nuclear war, off-grid living and Ted Kaczynski' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/MarcBago removed from /r/Bitcoin within 273-283min

'''
Bitcoin, trade wars, nuclear war, off-grid living and Ted Kaczynski
I saw a post on here earlier asking if the trade war with China is good news for bitcoin.
Which got me thinking- would war be good news for bitcoin?
What about nuclear war?
Expected answer: cashing out your bitcoins would be the last of your problems during nuclear war.
Which I agree with. But I have a soft spot in my heart for off-grid lifestyles and an anti-tech revolution as imagined by Ted Kaczynski. His latest book released in 2016 I believe, Anti-Tech Revolution: Why & How (pdf is available free online) was a fascinating read, I read it front to back 3+ times in a row after first coming across it.
Kaczynaki takes a look at revolutions throughout history and the social sciences generally (which he rightfully observes is nowhere remotely like the hard sciences) in this book, and one thing he concludes is that human affairs are unpredictable and society cannot be designed and there will sooner or later be catastrophic failure of the industrial technological system we are living in.
You know what, how about I paste a snippet here for y’all to digest and share your thoughts about-
[link]1
CHAPTER ONE
The Development ofa Society Can Never Be Subject to Rational Human Control
I. In specific contexts in which abundant empirical evidence is available, fairly reliable short-term prediction and control of a society's behavior may be possible. For example, economists can predict some ofthe immediate consequences for a modern industrial society of a rise or a fall in the interest rates. Hence, by raising or lowering interest rates they can manipulate such variables as the levels ofinflation and ofunemployment.3 Indirect consequences are harder to predict, and prediction of the conse­ quences of more elaborate financial manipulations is largely guesswork. That's why the economic policies ofthe U.S. government are subject to so much controversy: No one knows for certain what the consequences of those policies really are. Outside of contexts in which abundant empirical evidence is avail­ able, or when longer-term effects are at issue, successful prediction-and therefore successful management of a society's development-is far more difficult. In fact, failure is the norm.
• During the first half of the second century BC, sumptuary laws (laws intended to limit conspicuous consumption) were enacted in an effort to forestall the incipient decadence of Roman society. As is usual with sump­ tuary laws, these failed to have the desired effect, and the decay of Roman mores continued unchecked.4 By the early first century BC, Rome had become politically unstable. With the help ofsoldiers under his command, Lucius Cornelius Sulla seized control of the city, physically exterminated the opposition, and carried out a comprehensive program ofreform that was intended to restore stable government. But Sulla's intervention only made the situation worse, because he had killed offthe "defenders oflawful government" and had filled the Senate with unscrupulous men "whose tra­ dition was the opposite ofthat sense ofmission and public service that had animated the best of the aristocracy."5 Consequently the Roman political system continued to unravel, and by the middle of the first century BC Rome's traditional republican government was essentially defunct.
• In Italy during the 9th century AD certain kings promulgated laws intended to limit the oppression and exploitation of peasants by the aristocracy. "The laws proved futile, however, and aristocratic landowning and political dominance continued to grow."6
• Simon Bolivar was the principal leader ofthe revolutions through which Spain's American colonies achieved their independence. He had hoped and expected to establish stable and "enlightened" government throughout Spanish America, but he made so little progress toward that objective that he wrote in bitterness shortly before his death in 1830: "He who serves a revolution plows the sea." Bolivar went on to predict that Spanish America would "infallibly fall into the hands ofthe unrestrained multitude to pass afterward to those of. . . petty tyrants of all races and colors . . . [We will be] devoured by all crimes and extinguished by ferocity [so that] the Europeans will not deign to conquer us. . . ."7 Allowing for a good deal of exaggeration attributable to the emotion under which Bolivar wrote, this prediction held (roughly) true for a century and a half after his death. But notice that Bolivar did not arrive at this prediction until too late; and that it was a very general prediction that asserted nothing specific.
• In the United States during the late 19th century there were worker-housing projects sponsored by a number ofindividual philan­ thropists and housing reformers. Their objective was to show that efforts to improve the living conditions ofworkers could be combined with... profits of5 percent annually. ... Reformers believed that the model dwellings would set a stan­ dard that other landlords would be forced to meet. . . mostly because of the workings of competition. Unfortunately, this solution to the housing problem did not take hold. . . . The great mass ofurban work­ ers. . . were crowded into. . . tenements that operated solely for profit.8 It is not apparent that there has been any progress over the centuries in the capacity of humans to guide the development of their societies. Relatively recent (post-1950) efforts in this direction may seem superficially to be more sophisticated than those ofearlier times, but they do not appear to be more successful.
• The social reform programs ofthe mid-1960s in the United States, spearheaded by President Lyndon Johnson, revealed that beliefs about the causes and cures of such social problems as crime, drug abuse, poverty, and slums had little validity. For example, according to one disappointed reformer: Once upon a time we thought that ifwe could only get our problem families out of those dreadful slums, then papa would stop taking dope, mama would stop chasing around, and junior would stop car­ rying a knife. Well, we've got them in a nice new apartment with modern kitchens and a recreation center. And they're the same bunch of bastards they always were.9 This doesn't mean that all ofthe reform programs were total fail­ ures, but the general level of success was so low as to indicate that the reformers did not understand the workings of society well enough to know what should be done to solve the social problems that they addressed. Where they achieved some modest level of success they probably did so mainly through luck.
One could go on and on citing examples like the foregoing ones. One could also cite many examples ofefforts to control the development ofsocieties in which the immediate goals ofthe efforts have been achieved. But in such cases the longer-term consequences for society as a whole have not been what the reformers or revolutionaries have expected or desired.11
10 ANTI-TECH REVOLUTION • The legislation of the Athenian statesman Solon (6th century BC) was intended to abolish hektemorage (roughly equivalent to serfdom) in Attica while allowing the aristocracy to retain most of its wealth and privilege. In this respect the legislation was successful. But it also had unexpected consequences that Solon surely would not have approved. The liberationofthe"serfs"resultedinalaborshortagethatledtheAtheniansto purchase or capture numerous slaves from outside Attica, so that Athens was transformed into a slave society. Another indirect consequence of Solon's legislation was the Peisistratid "tyranny" (populist dictatorship) that ruled Athens during a substantial part of the 6th century BC.12 • Otto von Bismarck, one of the most brilliant statesmen in European history, had an impressive list ofsuccesses to his credit. Among other things: -He achieved the unification ofGermany in 1867-1871. -He engineered the Franco-Prussian war of1870-71, but his suc- cessful efforts for peace thereafter earned him the respect of European leaders. -He successfully promoted the industrialization of Germany. -By such means he won for the monarchy the support ofthe middle class. -Thus Bismarck achieved his most important objective: He pre­ vented (temporarily) the democratization of Germany. -Though Bismarckwas forced to resign in 1890, the political struc­ ture he had established for Germany lasted until 1918, when it was brought down by the German defeat in World War 1.13 Notwithstanding his remarkable successes Bismarck felt that he had failed, and in 1898 he died an embittered old man.14 Clearly, Germany was not going the way he had intended. Probably it was the resumption of Germany's slow drift toward democratization that angered him most. But his bitterness would have been deeper ifhe had foreseen the future. One can only speculate as to what the history ofGermany might have been after 1890 if Bismarck hadn't led the country up to that date, but it is certain that he did not succeed in putting Germany on a course leading to results ofwhich he would have approved; for Bismarck would have been horrified by the disastrous war of 1914-18, by Germany's defeat in it, and above all by the subsequent rise ofAdolfHitler. • In the United States, reformers' zeal led to the enactment in 1919 of"Prohibition" (prohibition ofthe manufacture, sale, or transportation
CHAPTER ONE: PART I 11 of alcoholic beverages) as a constitutional amendment. Prohibition was partly successful in achieving its immediate objective, for it did decrease the alcohol consumption of the "lower" classes and reduce the incidence of alcohol-related diseases and deaths; it moreover "eradicated the saloon." On the other hand, it provided criminal gangs with opportunities to make huge profits through the smuggling and/or the illicit manufacture of alcoholic drinks; thus Prohibition greatly promoted the growth of organized crime. In addition, it tended to corrupt otherwise respectable people who were tempted to purchase the illegal beverages. It became clear that Prohibition was a serious mistake, and it was repealed through another constitutional amendment in 1933.15 • The so-called "Green Revolution" of the latter part of the 20th century-the introduction of new farming technologies and of recently developed, highly productive varieties of grain-was supposed to allevi­ ate hunger in the Third World by providing more abundant harvests. It did indeed provide more abundant harvests. But: "[A]lthough the 'Green Revolution' seems to have been a success as far as the national total cereal production figures are concerned, a look at it from the perspective of communities and individual humans indicates that the problems have far outweighed the successes... ."16 In some parts of the world the conse­ quences of the Green Revolution have been nothing short of catastrophic. For example, in the Punjab (a region lying partly in India and partly in Pakistan), the Green Revolution has ruined "thousands of hectares of [for­ merly] productive land," and has led to severe lowering of the water table, contamination of the water with pesticides and fertilizers, numerous cases of cancer (probably due to the contaminated water), and many suicides. "'The green revolution has brought us only downfall,' says Jarnail Singh... . 'It ruined our soil, our environment, our water table. Used to be we had fairs in villages where people would come together and have fun. Now we gather in medical centers.' "17 From other parts of the world as well come reports of negative con­ sequences, of varying degrees of severity, that have followed the Green Revolution.These consequences include economic, behavioral, and medical effects in addition to environmental damage (e.g., desertification).18 • In 1953, U.S. President Eisenhower announced an "Atoms for Peace" program according to which the nations of the world were sup­ posed to pool nuclear information and materials under the auspices of an international agency. In 1957 the International Atomic Energy Agency
12 ANTI-TECH REVOLUTION was established to promote the peaceful uses of atomic energy, and in 1968 the United Nations General Assembly approved a "non-proliferation" treaty under which signatories agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and in return were given nuclear technology that they were supposed to use only for peaceful purposes.19The people involved in this effort should have known enough history to realize that nations generally abide by treaties only as long as they consider it in their own (usually short-term) interest to do so, which commonly is not very long. But apparently the assumption was that the nations receiving nuclear technology would be so grateful, and so happy cooperating in its peaceful application, that they would forever put aside the aspirations for power and the bitter rivalries that throughout history had led to the development of increasingly destructive weapons. This idea seems to have originated with scientists like Robert Oppenheimer and Niels Bohr who had helped to create the first atomic bomb.20 That physicists would come up with something so nai:ve was only to be expected, since specialists in the physical sciences almost always are grossly obtuse about human affairs. It seems surprising, however, that experienced politicians would act upon such an idea. But then, politicians often do things for propaganda purposes and not because they really believe in them. The "Atoms for Peace" idea worked fine-for a while. Some 140 nations signed the non-proliferation treaty in 1968 (others later),21 and nuclear technology was spread around the world. Iran, in the early 1970s, was one of the countries that received nuclear technology from the U.S.22 And the nations receiving such technology didn't t r y t o use i t t o develop nuclear weapons. Not immediately, anyway. Of course, we know what has happened since then. "[H]ard-nosed politicians and diplomats [e.g., Henry Kissinger]...argue that proliferation of nuclear weapons is fast approaching a 'tipping point' beyond which it will be impossible to check their spread." These "veterans of America's cold-war security establishment with impec­ cable credentials as believers in nuclear deterrence" now claim that such weapons "ha[ve] become a source of intolerable risk."23 And there is the inconvenient fact that the problem of safe disposal of radioactive waste from the peaceful uses of nuclear energy still has not been solved.24 The "Atoms for Peace"fiasco suggests that humans' capacity to con­ trol the development of their societies not only has failed to progress, but has actually retrogressed. Neither Solon nor Bismarck would have supported anything as stupid as "Atoms for Peace."
CHAPTER ONE: PART II 13 II. There are good reasons why humans' capacity to control the development of their societies has failed to progress. In order to control the development of a society you would have to be able to predict how the society would react to any given action you might take, and such predic­ tions have generally proven to be highly unreliable. Human societies are complex systems-technologically advanced societies are most decidedly complex-and prediction of the behavior of complex systems presents dif­ ficulties that are not contingent on the present state of our knowledge or our level of technological development. [U]nintended consequences [are] a well-known problem with the design and use of technology... . The cause of many [unintended con­ sequences] seems clear: The systems involved are complex, involving interaction among and feedback between many parts. Any changes to such a system will cascade in ways that are difficult to predict; this is especially true when human actions are involved.25 Problems in economics can give us some idea of how impossibly difficult it would be to predict or control the behavior of a system as com­ plex as that of a modern human society. It is convincingly argued that a modern economy can never be rationally planned to maximize efficiency, because the task of carrying out such planning would be too overwhelmingly complex.26 Calculation of a rational system of prices for the U.S. economy alone would require manipulation of a conservatively estimated 6xl013 (sixty trillion!) simultaneous equations.27 That takes into account only the economic factors involved in establishing prices and leaves out the innu­ merable psychological, sociological, political, etc., factors that continuously interact with the economy. Even if we make the wildly improbable assumption that the behav­ ior of our society could be predicted through the manipulation of, say, a million trillion simultaneous equations and that sufficient computing power to conduct such manipulation were available, collection of the data necessary for insertion of the appropriate numbers into the equations would be impracticable,28 especially since the data would have to meet impossibly high standards of precision if the predictions were expected to remain valid over any considerable interval of time. Edward Lorenz, a meteo­ rologist, was the first to call widespread attention to the fact that even the most minute inaccuracy in the data provided can totally invalidate a
14 ANTI-TECH REVOLUTION prediction about the behavior of a complex system. This fact came t o be called the "butterfly effect"because in 1972, at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Lorenz gave a talk that he titled "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?"29 Lorenz's work is said to have been the inspiration for the development of what is called "chaos theory"30-the butterfly effect being an example of "chaotic" behavior. Chaotic behavior is not limited to complex systems; in fact, some surprisingly simple systems can behave chaotically.31 The Encyclopaedia Britannica illustrates this with a purely mathematical example. Let A and x0 be any two given numbers with 0 CHAPTER ONE: PART II 15 behavior of a macroscopic system requires data so precise that their accuracy can be disturbed by events at the subatomic level, then no reliable prediction is possible. Hence, for a chaotic physical system, there is a point beyond which the horizon of predictability can never be extended. Of course, the behavior of a human society is not in every respect chaotic; there are empirically observable historical trends that can last for centuries or millennia. But it is wildly improbable that a modern techno­ logical society could be free of all chaotic subsystems whose behavior is capable of affecting the society as a whole, so it is safe to assume that the development of a modern society is necessarily chaotic in at least some respects and therefore unpredictable. This doesn't mean that no predictions at all are possible. In reference to weather forecasting the Britannica writes: It is highly probable that atmospheric movements... are in a state of chaos. If so, there can be little hope of extending indefinitely the range of weather forecasting except in the most general terms. There are clearly certain features of climate, such as annual cycles of tem­ perature and rainfall, which are exempt from the ravages of chaos. Other large-scale processes may still allow long-range prediction, but the more detail one asks for in a forecast, the sooner it will lose its validity.34 Much the same can be said of the behavior of human society (though human society is far more complex even than the weather). In some con­ texts, reasonably reliable and specific short-term predictions can be made, as we noted above in reference to the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and unemployment. Long-term predictions of an imprecise and nonspecific character are often possible; we've already mentioned Bolivar's correct prediction of the failure of stable and "enlightened " government in Spanish America. (Here it is well to note that predictions that something will not work can generally be made with greater confidence than predic­ tions that something willwork.35) But reliable long-term predictions that are at all specific can seldom be made. There are exceptions. Moore's Law makes a specific prediction about the rate of growth of computing power, and as of 2012 the law has held true for some fifty years.36 But Moore's Law is not an inference derived from an understanding of society, it is simply a description of an empirically
16 ANTI-TECH REVOLUTION observed trend, and no one knows how long the trend will continue. The law may have predictable consequences for many areas of technology, but no one knows in any specific way how all this technology will interact with society as a whole. Though Moore's Law and other empirically observed trends may play a useful role in attempts to foresee the future, it remains true that any effort to understand the development of our society must (to borrow the Britannica's phrases) "remain a tentative process... with frequent recourse to observation and experiment... ." But just in case someone declines to assume that our society includes any important chaotic components, let's suppose for the sake of argument that the development of society could in principle be predicted through the solution of some stupendous system of simultaneous equations and that the necessary numerical data at the required level of precision could actually be collected. No one will claim that the computing power required to solve such a system of equations is currently available. But let's assume that the unimaginably vast computing power predicted by Ray Kurzweil37 will become a reality for some future society, and let's suppose that such a quantity of computing power would be capable of handling the enormous complexity ofthe present society and predicting its development over some substantial interval of time. It does not follow that a future society of that kind would have sufficient computing power to predict its own develop­ ment, for such a society necessarily would be incomparably more complex than the present one: The complexity of a society will grow right along with its computing power, because the society's computational devices are part of the society.
Thoughts? :)
'''
Bitcoin, trade wars, nuclear war, off-grid living and Ted Kaczynski
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: MarcBago
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Safe Harbours and Storms | Monthly Portfolio Update - May 2019

Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty. – Tacitus
This is my thirtieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
*$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a real income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) *$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $745 158 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 119 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $77 915 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $105 821 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $80 408 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $246 012 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 937 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 376 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 178 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $85 424 Secured physical gold – $13 652 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $23 262 Bitcoin – $132 720 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 130 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $1 883 BrickX* (P2P rental real estate) – $4 629 Total value: $1 598 624 (+$57 037)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.6% International small companies – 3.3% Total international shares – 28.2% (1.8% under) Total shares – 69.1% (5.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.5% International bonds – 10.5% Total bonds – 16.0% (1.0% over) Gold – 6.2% Bitcoin – 8.3% Gold and alternatives – 14.5% (4.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
The portfolio has experienced strong growth through the month, with a total increase of around $57 000.
This fifth month of continuous growth has seen an important event occur ahead of schedule. Portfolio Objective #1 - which is the 'median income' FIRE target that was the goal set at the start of this record in December 2016 - has been narrowly achieved.
[Chart]
My expectation at the beginning of this year was to reach this particular goal only at the end of 2020. This itself was shifted forward from the original goal of passing a slightly lower median income objective by July 2021. The net result of all of this is that a higher absolute portfolio objective has been reached more than two years early.
This achievement may be temporary, as it comes following the equal second longest run of monthly gains in this record. Just an average monthly fall could easily see the portfolio dip well below the objective again, and a prolonged downturn in share markets could easily lead to major declines which would take some time to recover from. At this stage, given that my final Objective #2 is still some distance away and further accumulation is planned, this prospect does not overly concern me.
The portfolio performance this month largely reflects the same drivers that have dominated performance since the journey began. These drivers have been new contributions and increases in Australian shares (through Betashares A200), particularly since the Federal election. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. This led to a portfolio growth which was the sixth highest in the record to date.
[Chart]
Credit card spending has been significantly lower than average over the past month. It has been the lowest level in six years in fact. As the series below indicates, however, it is a volatile measure.
Once financial year 2018-19 figures on distributions are finalised early next month, it's likely the the red line of distributions, which currently is an estimate based on low December half year figures, will be revised up. This in turn could mean a return to distributions on average coming close to meeting credit card expenses.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 100.0% 137.3% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 80.7% 110.8% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 91.8% 126.0% Total expenses - $96 000pa 69.8% 95.8%
Summary
Progress over the last few months has been swift and surprising. Timelines set less than six months ago have been met, and the portfolio has entered into the 'between' phase of being above my minimum Objective #1, but some distance from my ultimate goal (Objective #2).
Part of the process of adapting to this phase is understanding its true nature - its permanence or otherwise, and looking through short-term movements to try to discern the underlying picture. In short, inspection and delay.
This what lies behind recent posts seeking to analyse the income potential of the portfolio, and longer term trends in distributions and expenses. Seeking the additional data point of what this portfolio delivers currently is the reason I am straining forward to see the size and shape of the end of June distributions.
The advice commonly offered in the financial independence community at this point is crystal clear. Pay less attention to the numbers, and start exploring and building the life you desire now. The advice is so universal, and so intuitively sensible that I do not ignore it. With Australian and global equity markets poised as they are, however, I feel a resisting force going too far down this path. This is mostly stemming from a suspicion that prior to the goal being reached there might be one or more unavoidable challenges to come.
This may be linked to an increased probability of Australian interest rate reductions, and even the entry by Australian monetary authorities into some form of quantitative easing. As inflation stalls, and housing markets decline, the macroeconomic conditions appear less predictable than at any time since 2009. Some of the global financial trends and developments that are of most concern are well discussed in the most recent Incrementum AG In Gold We Trust report, which has as its theme tracing declining trust across the global financial system.
While that outlook might suggest protective action, overall I am comfortable with the extent of my diversification across less-correlated assets. It should be remembered that I felt similar unease two years ago - and that indulging in market timing at that point would have had high opportunity costs.
In any case, more and more it is evident that the performance of the portfolio is not something that can be materially altered by one or two monthly investment decisions. Rather, it is a function of the interaction of unstable markets with the compound effect of hundreds of smaller individual investment contribution decisions taken over the past decade or so across a range of different market conditions.
Following on from my quick Bitcoin and gold correlation analysis last month, I was interested to see this 'portfolio optimisation' based analysis on the potential role of Bitcoin in a portfolio, using just seven years of historical data. Also, this What's Up Next podcast on finding the right time to retire is a fascinating discussion of the issue of knowing when it is time to put into action FIRE plans. Finally, Aussie HIFIRE has recently pulled together a post highlighting the different voices in the Australian FIRE blogging community for readers.
As winter takes hold, the portfolio is prepared for as yet undefined challenges and storms that may emerge, and I remain intensely curious at what the coming set of distributions will disclose about the distance I still have to travel. One port gained, the next leg of the journey beckons.
The post and graphs can be viewed here.
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Why the price needs to increase for XRP to succeed

The question "Why will the price of XRP increase?" gets asked repeatedly, so I thought I'd express my opinion and understanding of how the price will increase and needs to increase for XRP to be successful.
A common misunderstanding I see is that people are really caught up on market capital and use that calculation to determine how many XRP need to be purchased by banks and institutions to fulfill transactions. This leads to incorrect assumptions where someone says something like "If I want to send $1 billion dollars to another bank, then I need 1 billion XRP" (assuming XRP are worth $1 each). That is not how it works. 1 billion XRP is currently 2.6% of the entire circulating supply of XRP, if someone were to sell or buy 1 billion XRP right now, it would wreak havoc on the market and they could potentially not end up with anywhere close to $1 billion after selling 1 billion XRP.
Let's look at some smaller numbers on Poloniex's USDT/XRP pair to clarify this statement. As I write this, XRP is trading at 0.9 USDT (let's just assume that USD/USDT are currently 1:1 for this example as well, and all price figures I give are correct at the time of writing). If I want to send Dave's bank $1,000,000 right now, I will need to buy $1 million dollars worth of XRP. I can't just buy 1 million dollars at the lowest price, because on the order book that price of 0.9 is only for 6.12 XRP. The next sell order at 0.9014 dollars is 306.54 XRP. And that price keeps going up as you fill each sell order, because that's how order books work.
In order to buy $1 million worth of XRP, I need to scroll a long way down the sell orders until the sum of all the sell orders is $1 million. And conveniently enough, the point the sell order summed total exceeds $1 million is at the sell price of 1.000 USDT.
When I put in my $1 million dollar purchase, I do not end up with 1,111,111 XRP (1,000,000 / 0.9). I'll end up with somewhere in the region of 1.07 million XRP. As you fill each sell order, it pushes the price up so your average buy in will be somewhere in the region of 0.93 based on Poloniex's current order book.
But what's now happened? I've consumed every sell order up to the 1.000 USDT mark. I'm now technically sat on 1.07 million XRP valued at $1 each according to the market capital calculation. My $1 million dollar purchase is now magically worth $1.07 million dollars? I just made $70,000 by doing nothing! Or did I? Of course I haven't, because the exact same process works in reverse for buy orders.
Something else to bear in mind with this scenario is that bots and traders will see the massive purchase and then start buying in themselves as they think that something important is happening. I.e. FOMO by traders/speculators, or automated responses from bots.
When Dave's bank receives my 1.07 million XRP, he then has to sell them to get his dollars I promised him. So now the exact same process happens in reverse. As he sells his XRP, it drives down the buy price. Now hopefully he'll end up with $1 million at the end of it. But if bots/traders see 1 million XRP being dumped, then it could push the price down as people panic (in exactly the same way that buying 1 million dollars worth of XRP would cause FOMO).
So why does the price of XRP need to be high? It needs to be high to avoid this scenario occurring. I'm just going to use the following figures as examples, they're not in any way price predictions:
Imagine now that each XRP is worth $100 each. To send the same dollar value, I now need to buy significantly less XRP than I did previously. Let's pretend that ends up as 10,000 XRP exactly (I know it won't as per my previous examples). 10,000 XRP is only 0.00001% of the total XRP in existence. So this means that less sell orders get consumed and the price does not jump as much.
JoelKatz used a similar example for buying a house with Bitcoin back when it was worth $10 each vs what it is today. If you read that whole twitter conversation, he basically explains this much better than I could anyway.
Now XRapid already solves this problem somewhat as it locks in the sell and buy orders to avoid these spikes, but it still needs the liquidity. As far as my understanding goes, if Bank of Steve wants to send $1 billion to Bank of Dave today, then there's just not enough liquidity in the market for XRapid to find the XRP for that transaction. That is why the price needs to and will go up for XRP to succeed and to be used by banks. The price will go up as it gets used by more and more institutions all competing for the same resource (XRP).
Anyway, that's how I understand things. Feel free to please point out any inaccuracies or debate my comments. At the end of the day, we're (mostly) all here because we believe XRP has a bright future. I've been holding since September 2016 and invested back then because of my assumptions above (albeit there was no xRapid back then, but the use case of cross border payments was still the same).
EDIT: Typos and reformed introduction.
EDIT2: Changing link around as the mobile app appears to be picking up the twitter URL and using David's face as the post image.
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WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB

The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB
The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES.
If you can’t read, GFY now.
Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all.
This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated.
First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about.
This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY.
I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well.
To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101
-Basics (Equities/Stocks)
;
-ETF's
;
-Options
;
-Futures Trading
;
-SubCulture
;
BASICS/EQUTIES Skip if you understand basic stock stuff
Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms.
Volume: The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume.
Spread: The difference between the bid and the ask price
Bid Price: The current price in which someone wants to buy at
Ask Price:The current price in which someone wants to sell at
Volatility: The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges.
Margin: A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction.
Dividend: This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this.
PPS: Acronym for “Price per Share”
Moving Average: A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time.
Bullish: Expecting the stock to go up
Bearish: Expecting the stock to go down
Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186
Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible.
WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES: Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy.
AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it
NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB.
FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/
ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit.
TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself.
TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options.
GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since.
ETF'S
Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much..
WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S:
JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand.
NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag
JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions.
DUST - Jdst with a different price tag.
UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions.
DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ
UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.
DWT - Inverse of UWT
FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc.
FAZ - Inverse of FAS
UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x.
BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.
LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump.
LABD - Inverse of LABU
RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index.
RUSS - Inverse of RUSL
SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x.
OPTIONS:
Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves.
KEY TERMS:
A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form.
A PUT - is the right to sell.
The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN
Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised.
ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising.
OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying
Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves.
For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me.
That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it?
Now what determines the pricing of options?
OPTION PRICING:
Below is sourced from investopedia
Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.
Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right?
Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it.
Volatility:
In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used.
Decaying Nature of Options:
Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away.
A great example of these factors in action is TSLA.
TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why?
An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value.
-Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide (thanks to u/IncendiaryGames)
Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading.
Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies?
YOLO Strategies
Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading if you want to explore more!
Boring safer strategies
I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area.
SUBCULTURE
Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history.
HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga) + my additions
2012: Jartek [+1] creates /wallstreetbets, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau [+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link 2017: u/fscomeau preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456 inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued.
KEY FIGURES:
Donald J Trump - He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market, which Trump happens to be.
u/Jartek - Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive.
u/Fscomeau - The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator.
Martin Shkreli - An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly.
u/theycallme1 - Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods.
u/world_chaos - some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options.
Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature:
The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy and many in the past.
Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here.
The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader.
Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder.
Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist.
Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol.
I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community.
You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks.
Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots.
Enjoy your time here at WSB.
EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN
MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1 u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY etc
submitted by Thor303456 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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