submitted by 58CoinExchange to u/58CoinExchange [link] [comments]
Too many novice players entering the currency circle are often attracted by some magic wealth-making tales. However, reality will tell you that investment is a science, and there are no shortcuts. The same is true for seemingly magical currency circles.
So everyone must be aware of these four issues before entering the currency circle:
Is the contract risk really higher than the spot?
What indicators should be paid attention to in the currency market?
What are the basic usage specifications of contract tools?
What should be the first indicator of concern in contract trading?
Why has Bitcoin fallen into a downturn recently?
The A-share gains in the past two days have been gratifying, and many currency friends have begun to consider returning. However, the right side that shows the downturn of Bitcoin has caused a lot of confusion. Why has Bitcoin into a short market in the past two weeks? 58COIN experts pointed out two main reasons.
One is the concentrated selling of miners. From June 23 to the early morning of June 24, the miners sold more than 5000 BTC. Then at 3 pm on June 24, Bitcoin began to fall sharply, so that in June It fell below the $9,000 mark on the 25th.
Second, Bitcoin is still highly correlated with traditional markets such as S&P 500, and the collapse of traditional financial assets might also have caused it to fall into a short market, which is similar to the logic behind the 312 Bitcoin crash.
Should you proceed to stick to the spot?
Bitcoin is stuck in the short market. JiuCai is facing a very real problem that most crypto-lovers are still persistent in spot trading, although most also know the role of the contract in the downtrend which allows to make money, but naturally we all think that the contract means high risk, means less safety than the spot. But this is a typical cognitive misunderstanding.
In fact, the contract is the same tool as the spot, and the contract is not necessarily riskier than the spot.
The contract is similar to the futures of the traditional financial market. It can be bearish and bullish, and it is leveraged in nature, without delay, and is traded in real time. In particular, perpetual contracts are a new risk hedging and hedging financial instrument compared to futures in traditional financial markets. In the case of holding positions of the same value, when the opening points are the same, under the same market situation, the profit and loss of the two tend to be the same, but because the contract has additional leverage, the principal occupied is less than Spot, so in comparison, the risk of the contract may not be higher than that of the spot, and the capital utilization rate and return rate of the contract can be obviously better than the spot . In addition, even in a bear market, contracts can be profitable, and the operational space is actually much richer than the spot market.
Of course, some people have their positions liquidated frequently, which is quite scary. This tells us that no matter how good the tool is, it still needs to follow the basic rules of use. 58COIN experts give these few tips on contract trading:
Strictly control positions and leverage, choose only one option either high leverage or numerous positions, numerous positions + high leverage together will undoubtedly run towards the crematorium;
Opening orders is driven by opportunity logic rather than emotions. Mastering this logic requires investors to strengthen their scope and knowledge, to look at many indicators, and establish a full-dimensional indicator system.
In short, for all players, "less positions, lower leverage and close when you see fit" will never go out of style.
Establishing a full-dimensional indicator system
As the teacher of 58COIN said, you must speak logic when you open an order. In fact, this applies to any kind of investment market. So in the digital asset contract market, how to understand the logic of opening?
Different from the stock market, the digital currency market has insufficient liquidity and high price fluctuations. 58COIN experts believe that digital asset investors need to build a full-dimension decision-making system if they want to be comfortable with it. In addition to some basic technical indicators, investors should also observe some data indicators, network indicators and market sentiment indicators, and refer to authoritative trading reports.
Some indicators are listed as follows:
• Data indicators & composite indicators: new addresses, active addresses, number of transactions, transaction volume, total addresses, Metcalfe index, Odlyzko index;
• Transaction report: CFTC COT report;
• Network indicators: 360 index, Baidu index, Weibo index, Google index;
• Market sentiment: panic index, greed index.
After establishing your own indicator system, you must balance your mentality, always maintain a suspicious mentality, fear the market, evolve yourself, and insist on continuous learning.
It’s important to focus on maintaining margin ratio
Maybe you didn't make a contract, but you should have heard the saying "close out" many times. Yes, the first task of making a contract is to prevent liquidation. What are the key indicators of liquidation? On the surface, the liquidation price or risk level has not reached the critical value, but it is actually the available margin (the remaining principal under the isolated margin). Can the lower limit of the maintenance margin be met, and what indicators can be used to measure this limit ? Maintain margin rate.
It sounds unfamiliar at first, but you can understand that insolvency will lead to liquidation. If the maintenance margin rate is high, the platform will force to close in order to protect you from losing too much and. If the maintenance margin rate is low, the platform will remain friendly, allowing you to reconsider your actions in order to avoid losing too much. Therefore, players must first choose platforms that maintain a low margin rate when playing contracts, which means their contract design is more friendly. If you really don 't have time to make a choice, you can first try the industry's more recognized "king of contracts" 58COIN, which is currently the industry's fixed minimum value of 0.5%, and there is no holding fee.
There is no shortcut to investment, contract is a learning, any successful investor is evolved thanks to constant improvement and learning.
﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
[Today's Hot Tips]submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]
1. [U.S. Federal Court defines BTC as "currency"]
The U.S. Federal Court stated on Friday that Bitcoin is defined as “currency”under the Money Transmitter Act in Washington, DC.
2. [Liu Jun, President of Bank of Communications: The internationalization of RMB needs to take into account the development and changes of digital currency]
According to Sina Finance, the 2020 International Monetary Forum opened online today. Liu Jun, deputy secretary and president of the Bank of Communications, delivered a keynote speech. He believes that the internationalization of the RMB needs to take into account the development and changes of digital currency. In Liu Jun's view, in view of the development of the digital economy, the breadth, depth, and degree of RMB internationalization need to be further strengthened, and digital thinking must be integrated. The digital economy is a brand new paradigm faced by global economies. The digital economy not only shapes the environment for digital currency issuance, but also provides a new direction for the development of the international monetary system.
3. [U.S. Department of Health officials claim that they are using blockchain technology to track hospitalization data for the new coronavirus]
According to Forbes on July 25, the Coronavirus Data Hub, a new platform of the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is adjusting hospitals to report important information about the new coronavirus.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)BTC has been sideways near 9540 USDT in the morning, rebounded around 9:30 and pulled up. It just broke through 9600 USDT in a short-term and rose to 9619 USDT at the highest level, followed by a slight correction. At present, the overall BTC is adjusted within a narrow range around 9580 USDT. In the morning, the trend of mainstream currencies was similar to that of the broader market, and both rose to varying degrees. BTC is currently reported 9587.7 USDT on LOEx Global, a 24h increase of 0.43%. From the perspective of the concentration of the 5/10/30 moving average system on the daily line, the market already has the conditions to rise, but why did the Sino-US dispute escalate into this, the stock plummeted, gold skyrocketed, but BTC remained calm?
My personal judgment is that BTC has latency. How did this latency occur? It is determined by the main emotion of the market. We saw the comparison of the above two boxes. We analyzed the pressure area above 9700 the day before yesterday. In the previous period, the transaction volume was too large, and the pressure on the entire market was very high in this range. If it is directly pulled up, it will require very high capital for the main force. This is a cost they are unwilling to pay. Because it has been fluctuating at a low level of around 9,000, so that the chips above 9,700 are very tight, so the main force can not rashly pull up.
The shape of the market already has a signal to rise. The reason for the lack of movement is that the subsequent trading volume is too small and the number of participants is too small. It is difficult for the accumulated volume of the market to break through the pressure zone of 9700-10000 in one fell swoop, otherwise the subsequent selling will be very serious, unless the news of the entire market cooperates and emergencies occur.
The current strategy is to hold positions firmly, and there is no position to wait and see for opportunities. The safety zone remains around 9300-9400 as previously judged.
Support level: the first support level is 9300 points, the second support level is 9400 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9600 points, the second resistance level is 9800 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours.
In the last month, the world markets are experiencing dramatic events. In light of the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis is unfolding in the world. Because of quarantine actions across the world, many manufactures and non-food stores are being closed, the level of product turnover is falling. Small and medium-sized businesses suffer huge losses due to downtime, the unemployment rate increases and the purchasing power, in the opposite, decreases.submitted by Stealthex_io to StealthEX [link] [comments]
The value of the CBOE VIX index, reflecting the level of market volatility, increased the value to 82 points, for comparison, during the 2008 crisis, this index did not exceed 80 points, and in recent years it has been held at the level of 15-25 with peaks up to 45. Against the background of total panic among investors, on March 30, Brent crude updated the minimum of November 2002, falling to the level of $22.6 per barrel. The S&P, Dow Jones and Nikkei indexes are critically losing their positions. Experts note that the downward trend began even before the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the spread of the disease played a crucial role in the crisis increase.
At the same time, digital assets also found themselves in a zone of turbulence: in the middle of the month, the price of bitcoin fell to $3800, followed by the price of altcoins. Panic sale leads to a chain reaction, many investors are getting rid of the cryptocurrency which is considered a risky investment, and the price of coins continues to decline.
The cryptocurrency market highly depends on what is happening in the world, so it will strengthen and continue to grow only when the situation with the pandemic becomes clear and less unpredictable. Therefore, the main task at this stage is to maintain composure and don’t give in to emotions when making decisions.
Despite the extremely uncertain situation, most analysts now give fairly favorable forecasts. Judging by the latest fluctuations in the exchange rate, the cryptocurrency market has come out of an uncontrolled fall. In their opinion, we expect a long flat with a slow trend of price growth against the background of halving. Despite bearish trends and skidding at $6,500, at the close of the quarter, bitcoin was able to hold above the important support level of $6,400. Michaël van de Poppe, a cryptanalyst of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, believes that now bitcoin is in the stage of consolidation and will gradually pay off in the next 4-6 years. Tuur Demeester, analyst and founder of Adamant Capital, suggests that holding the $6,300 level could be a key resistance level before the bull market can resume.
Similar dynamics are predicted for altcoins, which maintain a high correlation with the first cryptocurrency.
Here’s what the quarterly charts for BTC, ETH and XRP look like:
Bitcoin chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko
Ethereum chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko
XRP chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko
Also, experts in cryptocurrency research believe that the current situation in the oil and stock markets can have a positive impact on digital currencies. WTI oil, like Brent, fell to the level of 2002, trading around $20 mark. Black gold continues to look very vulnerable as well as the prospects for the oil market in general.
At the end of the first quarter of 2020, the bitcoin exchange rate decreased by 13%, but in comparison with traditional stock markets, the first cryptocurrency showed more successful results. The S&P 500 index, which includes shares of the 500 largest companies by capitalization, fell 19% to 2,584 points. This is the worst figure since 1938. President Trump’s proposal to allocate $2.2 trillion to support the American economy is criticized by many economists as leading to more problems than offering a real solution. They consider hyperinflation as the most likely scenario for the next year.
Since cryptocurrencies are not subject to inflation and are not in control of governments and banks, many predict that digital assets will be popular as a tool for hedging risks.
Earlier co-founder and CEO of Gemini exchange Tyler Winklevoss stated in his twitter:
The founder, head and CEO of the Galaxy Digital, Michael Novogratz, also believes that cryptocurrencies with mathematically limited emission could be a safe haven in the face of inflation.
Peter Brandt called the current crisis a “perfect storm” and noted that it could be a crucial period for Bitcoin. It is at this point that the coin can reveal itself as a protective asset and grow in price. In his tweet of March 23, he also advises treating cryptocurrencies as insurance policies rather than investments.
Trading volume on 22 popular crypto exchanges increased by 61% in the first quarter compared to the previous one — to $154 billion.
In March, major cryptocurrency exchanges recorded a sharp increase in the number of new users. Pierre Richard strategist of the Kraken exchange believes that people who are concerned about the futile efforts of the authorities to contain the crisis against the background of the pandemic feel the need to leave the centralized financial system.
With other positive aspects, we should not forget that cryptocurrencies remain extremely susceptible to manipulation by major players. That collapse, which we experienced in the middle of the month, allowed corporations to buy coins at an extremely low price and, in fact, nothing can prevent them from attacking the market in the future.
Whatever happens on the market, you can always exchange coins at StealthEX as we always have unlimited exchanges without requesting personal data. A large number of currencies available for exchange will allow you to create your investment portfolio in the most suitable way for you.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/04/09/dont-panic-the-guide-to-the-current-situation-in-the-cryptogalaxy/
submitted by FmzQuant to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]
SummaryA complete strategy is actually a set of rules that traders give themselves. It includes all aspects of the trading, and does not leave a little room for subjective imagination. Every choices of buying and selling, the strategy will give an answer. It includes at least strategy selection, variety selection, fund management, order placing, extreme market situation response and so on.
Strategy choosingFrom the perspective of hedge funds, mainstream trading strategies can be divided into trend trading, paired trading, basket trading, event-driven, high-frequency trading, option strategy, etc., as shown below.
Of course, the way of strategy classification is not fixed. For the beginners, don't worry about so many noun concepts, let's start from the simplest. If only one type of quantitative trading strategy is recommended, it will be the trend trading, which is the most simple and effective. I believe that even if you don't have a systematic knowledge of financial learning, you can still use it. And this strategy has been around for a long time. Among the early public-published trading strategies, it is still effective in many markets today, because human nature is difficult to change.
What to buy and sellThose who have done trading should know that each variety has its own personality. Some varieties are very popular, with good liquidity, large fluctuations, and high volatility; some varieties are very "docile", and they are oscillating within a certain range all year round, with low volatility.
Therefore, when choosing a trading variety, there must be a concept of volatility. Varieties with high volatility are often easy to get out of a good trend. For commodity futures, if it is a trend-tracking strategy, try to choose industrial products. In terms of variety attributes, industrial products tend to be more volatile than agricultural products. For crypto trading, choose those major coins, such as bitcoin, eth, eos and so on.
Different strategies adapt to different market conditions. Choosing a good trading variety, which is a very crucial beginning for the future trading project. In absolute terms, there are no absolutely good varieties and no absolutely bad varieties. Depending on the investment style and the risk tolerance, you need to adjust accordingly to your own standards.
How much to buy and sellIt is easy to loss money when trading. When the account fund loses 50%, the loss will require 100% profit to recover it. Even if you can earn 100% many times, you only need to lose 100% once, which will lose it all. So mature trading strategies should include money management.
In order to facilitate everyone's understanding, here also use the average line strategy of the previous section to explain. In fact, many trading strategies built with traditional technical indicators have a maximum retracement rate of more than 50% or more. But is a risky strategy completely unusable?
Obviously not, the maximum retracement rate can be completely controlled by money management. If you cut the position by half, the overall risk will be reduced by half, and the maximum retracement rate will be 30%. If you reduce the position by half again, the maximum retracement rate will become 15%. Finally, we get a maximum retracement rate at around 15%. This is a simple and easy method of money management. Many people know that they can't go all in, but they don't know why. The answer is here.
When to buy and sellA good jump in point is very important, and it allows you to get out of the cost zone quickly. But there will never be anyone who can tell you that it is right at this point, and it is wrong at that point. Opening a position is not the core of the trading. The core of the trading is how to optimize the position after opening the position.
Whether it is a short-term strategy or a long-term strategy, it doesn't matter how long the position will be holding, the important is the risk-to-profit ratio. In other words, the final result that affects the performance of the strategy is how to play and when to cash out. The cash out method can be divided into two types: stop loss and take profit. Both of these parts are necessary for any trading system and are an important watershed for the success or failure of trading strategies.
How to buy1, Type and method of order placement: There are many types and methods of placing orders, such as: queuing limit orders, opponent price, latest price, over price, daily limit price, buying one price, buying two price, selling one price, selling two price. or use the queue price first, then use the over-price, sending batch order, or split the big order into small orders, or simply place the order directly.
2, Withdraw order If there are unexecuted orders, whether continue waiting or withdraw the order. The condition for the withdrawal is based on the time. For example, there is no transaction within 10 seconds. The price has been 10 units away from the order price, whether to continue waiting, withdrawing or chasing the new price.
3, chase the price When the order is unexecuted, whether to chase the price. If chasing the price, it is to chase according to the latest price, or the opponent price, or the limit price? If the order is still not executed, whether continue to pursue the latest price.
4, the price limit When the order signal appears, it happens to be the limit price. Whether should to queue up the price.
5, set bidding Do we need to participate in the market opening stage, how to participate.
6, night-time market Some commodity futures varieties are from 21:00 to 02:30 the next day and all crypto trading are 27/7. Do we need participate these time period. Manually or automatically?
7, Major holidays Before a long holiday, do we need clear all position or reduce some of them.
Extreme market situation1, Short-term price fluctuations The price of the price suddenly huge rises and falls (black swan situation) etc., how to deal with these situations (as shown in the figure, the Swiss franc black swan event).
2, Liquidity risk If the other side of trading direction order depth does not have the amount you want to execute, but you need to execute immediately. especially if the non-main commodity future contract is very rare, it is easy to make a price jump to the market. How to deal with it when the price slippage is large.
3, Variety trading rules change Commodity futures varieties are added to the night-time market and the crypto trading is 24/7. the margin ratio is raised, and the commission fee is raised, especially the short-term trading strategy, which is very sensitive to these changes.
4, Trading environment risk For example: sudden power failure, network disconnection, computer failure, software downtime, suspension of bank transfer, natural disasters, etc., how to deal with it when it occurs.
In the above case, the probability of occurrence is small, or almost impossible. But if things can happen, it will happen. It is very necessary to make these assumptions and prevent them.
Psychological constructionThe three main psychological emotions commonly in trading are greed, fear and lucky. Investors need a strong trading psychology system to control and even use the above three emotions at different stages.
There must be an overall expectation for the future before you placing an order, including market expectations and variety psychological expectations. Market expectations have a clearer target for the location and future direction of the market. Variety expectations refer to the trading opportunities and risk profiles of the variety at its current location. Without the above psychological foundation, nothing can be done.
The whole process of real market trading is the process of continuous analysis, correction and execution. During the trading period, there are not many transactions, and more is tracking and endurance. This is a process of comprehensively examining the state of mind and testing human nature. The various habits of traders will be revealed and enlarged during the transaction process. Only by continuously learning and summarizing lessons after lessons, can we overcome the commonalities and psychological weaknesses of human nature.
To sum upIn summary, the so-called trading strategy is actually like this. When it has its perfect side and when it is incomplete, we can measure whether a trading strategy is reasonable. We can’t just look at his perfect side, and can’t just look at his broken side. On the one hand, it is more important to analyze the integrity of the strategy.
Finally, according to the characteristics of the strategy, combined with trader's own personality and financial situation to measure whether the strategy is suitable for themselves, if it is suitable for themselves, it is necessary to fully assess how likely it is to persist, the worst results must be planned in advance, if the most You have thought about the miserable side happens, you still can take it, then the possibility of implementation is relatively large.
Remember, in trading, confidence comes from your inner recognition, and confidence comes from the right trading philosophy!
Next section noticeThis article is the last one of the first chapter. In the next chapter, we will focus on quantitative trading tools for further explanation, including: a comprehensive introduction to quantitative tools, how to configure quantitative trading systems, common API explanations, and how to quantify a trading systems. Write a strategy on it.
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]
Influenced by COVID-19, the Bitcoin price plunged by $5,000 within 2 weeks. As it dropped from $9,000 to $3,800, it created the worst daily decline in 7 years. While the market liquidated almost all the longs positions, it triggered a chain reaction that the market had panic emotions surrounded, and the Bitcoin price was frustrated. Besides, the worldwide stock markets all experienced a huge decline, and even the gold market was not able to be immune from it. After the multiple declines, the assets of global investors shrank.
The decline told us a simple sense that the market is full of risks. Even you held Bitcoins in your pocket, it once lost more than 50% value in the short-term, let alone the Bitcoin futures contracts. If you used to trade standard contracts on Huobi Global or BitMEX, whether you opened positions or not, the value of your account would lose as the token price dropped.
Overall, in this case, the market usually liquidates the longs and shorts at the same time while you leverage your trading. When the market fluctuates, closing orders on Huobi Global and OKEx was disabled due to the system lag was serious. At last, all you can do is to pray and wait for the liquidation to your positions since it is obvious that the risk of futures trading is extremely high.
When the situations get serious and extreme like what we experienced last week, futures trading is definitely not fit to trade because whether you belong to the longs or shorts, with a highly additional leverage on your futures contracts, your positions are likely to be liquidated after the market fluctuates. To become the winners on the market, it seems that options trading grabs a victory in the battle between futures trading and itself. The most significant feature of the options trading is that it has an inherent 2,000 times leverage, but it does not have any risk of being forced into liquidation. The investors who trade Bitcoin Options do not have to pay attention to the market all the time. With the feature above, the mentality will be hard to be influenced, so that it will be much easier to make correct choices and strategies.
How Do I Earn My Money back with a Low-budget after Bitcoin plunged?
After the decline, most investors are considering the same question: How do I earn my money back with the rest of the funds? COVID-19 influence on the global market still exists. In other words, market fluctuation will be presented again. In this case, Bitcoin Options becomes a unique choice. Bitcoin Options launched by BitOffer requests 0 fees, 0 margins, and no exercise, and supports the time length in 7-days, 1-day, 12-hours, 4-hours, 1-hour, 5-mins and 2-mins.
What is Bitcoin Options?
Bitcoin Options is a prediction of the movement of Bitcoins in the future. Essentially, it operates like the spot trading, but it allows the investors to buy call or put: Call when the investors expect the market to be bullish, Put when the investors expect the market to be bearish. Its profit formula is the same as that of the spot trading: Within the Options contract period, the investors would earn the price spread if the investors choose the correct direction. In short, BitOffer Bitcoin Options allows the investors to use a small budget to bet the change of the Bitcoins in the future and earn a considerable profit.
Takes the market last week as the example, the Bitcoin price plunged by $5,000, if you bought a 7-days put options contract, you would directly earn $5,000 with a budget which is less than $200. The rate of return was more than 2,500%. When the market was experiencing a serious decline, it dropped by $1,500 in an hour. If you bought a 1-hour put options contract with a budget of $20, you would directly earn $1,500, and the rate of return would reach 7,500%.
How do I trade Bitcoin Options?
For example, the Bitcoin price now is $10,000, and you hold the view that the Bitcoin price will rise in an hour, then you buy a 1-hour call options contract with $20. After then, the Bitcoin price rises by $1,000 in an hour, you will earn $1,000 as profit when the contract settled, which means that you will earn a 50 times payoff as a return.
If the Bitcoin price drops in an hour, you would only lose the premium $20 that you buy the options contract. It is obvious that Bitcoin Options owns the advantage of “Unlimited profit buy limited loss”. Compared with futures trading, if you predict the wrong direction of the Bitcoin market and do not stop loss in time, it might cause your positions to be liquidated and lose money. Thus, Bitcoin Options fits almost all investors.
Click here to start knowing BitOffer Bitcoin Options: https://www.bitoffer.com
Since the new year, the global situation and favorable conditions have continued. This has also been followed by the currency circle. The currency price has continued to rise, once again hitting the US $ 10,000 mark, which is a cumulative increase of nearly 220% from last year's low of US $ 3,416. At present, Bitcoin's circulating market value exceeds 1.15 trillion U.S. dollars, and the 24-hour trading volume exceeds 65 billion, which has far exceeded the highest trading volume during the bull market in 2017. In June of this year, the output was halved. Under this halving market, although it is still unclear, investors are more optimistic about the trend of the market currency price. There are currently two types of mainstream BTC methods: buying coins and mining, of course, two Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. So which way can I get Bitcoin at the lowest cost?submitted by heiwhite to u/heiwhite [link] [comments]
Many people will say that they are buying coins, but the shortcomings of buying coins are also very obvious. Generally, investors will be disgusted with the loss, resulting in unwillingness to buy in the downturn. Therefore, this requires investors to be able to tolerate short-term currency prices, even in the Buy currency even if the price of the currency drops. But humans are not machines and cannot control and avoid emotions that affect investment behavior. Just like people who buy real estate in China tend to chase after rising prices, they are reluctant to buy when prices fall.
There is also a short-sightedness. The long-term is made short-term, and it is sold as soon as it rises. Many investors always make the long-term short-term. When it comes to rising prices, it is easy to feel that you have already made a profit, and you want to sell it, or you want to sell it and wait for the decline before buying it back. Most of these results are due to small losses and short-term long-term markets, so you buy coins. Not very suitable for most ordinary people without professional knowledge.
Mining, especially cloud computing mining, is the method suitable for most ordinary investors. Mining is an excellent choice. In order for the BTC network to operate safely, an average of 12.5 BTC will be generated every 10 minutes as a reward to miners. As a miner, as long as the mined BTC can cover the cost of the mining investment and have sufficient profits, then there is a reason to continue mining BTC. Under this incentive mechanism, the average cost of a BTC mined by many miners is lower than the market price. In popular terms, it can get the ex-factory price of BTC. And mining is also considered to be better than buying coins directly. In addition to cost advantages, investment mining has the following advantages:
From the logic of coin storage, mining is inherently long-term and mandatory.
Once the mining is started, the depreciation and electricity charges of the miner at this moment are used to deposit coins at a fixed investment, and the cycle is relatively long. One investment usually takes one to two years, which is in line with the logic of BTC long-term investment. And compared to buying coins directly, miners are much less sensitive to the cost of mining, and are less susceptible to the effects of short-term currency price fluctuations, which reduces the irrational chase and kills from the side, which ultimately leads to trapping.
Whether a bear market is a bull market, cost recovery is profitEven in the case of long-term stable or even low currency prices, as long as the mining machine is operating normally, once the cost is recovered, it will enter the stage of almost zero-cost coin storage. Compared with the fixed investment, the market must rise to be profitable. Advantage.
Difficulties in mining: site leasing, mining machine purchase, unstable electricity, high electricity billsFirst of all, it is necessary to lease a suitable site before mining, because the noise of the mining machine operation is extremely large, and the operation of residential areas is prone to cause complaints. Secondly, the computing power of a single mining machine has very little block reward. It needs to form a scale to obtain a large number of block rewards. A large number of mining machines require a large amount of capital investment.
The voltage in residential areas is extremely unstable, with large power consumption in summer and winter, and large-scale power outages often occur. Once power outages, the damage to machinery and equipment will be huge, and all mining machine power operations will be damaged. In addition, the electricity bill in residential areas is high, and low-cost operation basically does not exist.
Without professional knowledge, it is impossible to master the maintenance and supervision of the mining machine. In the later operation of the mining machine, professional technical maintenance personnel are required to carry out daily maintenance tasks such as supervision, maintenance and upgrade of the mining machine, so the owner of the mining machine needs to have a lot of professional knowledge. .
Because of the above problems, most people who do not have the funds or do not know the professional knowledge are still out of the mining investment, and those who enter the market have even become "leeks". Therefore, choosing a good cloud computing mining platform can make you a BTC investor and owner, such as https://en.rhy.com/
RHY cloud mining-low-cost mining way to easily mine BitcoinBitcoin mining has gradually reduced the amount of mining, the cloud mining of the entire network has been increasing, and the difficulty of mining is also getting higher and higher. At the same time, the competition in the mining industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the rapid rise in mining costs has caused more miners to start mining with cloud computing power. RHY cloud mining, as the head platform in the field of cloud computing power mining, has been around the pain points of the traditional mining industry. In the face of ordinary investors and small white mining users, it has launched cloud computing power mining, computing power leasing and mining. The leasing activities of the machine allow the majority of investors to enjoy the feast of the benefits of cloud computing mining during this bitcoin halving period.
[Today's Hot Tips]submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]
1. [Dash is expected to have a reductions on April 27]
Dash is expected to have a reductions at the block height of 1261440 on April 27. After the reductions, the block reward of Dash will be reduced by about 7.14%, and the block reward will be reduced from 3.11 Dash to 2.89 Dash.
2. [The miners' first selling volume soared]
In the process of market fermentation, there will always be some clearly visible trading signals. In this BTC callback phase, different trading signals indicate that the adjustment is not over. The short-term rapid growth of the latest miner's first selling volume indicator may be a signal of the advent of the waterfall market. After all, the increase in miners' selling volume indicates that the increase in mining costs has forced them to do so. The increase in miners' selling volume has triggered an increase in the supply side of BTC and will also guide the price decline.
3.【Tether company adds 120 million USDT in banknote printing】
Tether company adds $ 120 million USDT in banknote printing
4. [The Dutch Central Bank hopes to play a leading role in the development of digital currency]
According to the news from Decrypt on April 21, the Dutch Central Bank issued a report saying that it was "ready to play a leading role in the development of CBDC." The bank said CBDC may play an important role as the country's cash usage decreases. The bank also said that CBDC can also promote the diversification of the payment market.
[Today's market analysis]
BTC quickly pulled up after falling at about 1 o'clock today, hitting its intraday low of 6808 UDST and intraday high of 6940 USDT within 10 minutes, and then fell back slightly, currently below 6900 USDT. Mainstream currencies rose slightly within the day. BTC is currently reported at 6873.40 USDT on LOEx Global, with a rise of 0.55% in 24h.
Peripheral US crude oil plummeted to a negative number, while US stocks fell about 3% last night. The market of Bitcoin yesterday was dominated by callback lows. First, it fell sharply in the early hours and continued to draw closer to the lower support point of 6750, and finally did not break it. It ushered in the first round of rebound and returned to shock at 6850 line; With the continuation of the shock market, the bearish forces continue to try to force the market to step down again, and then ushered in the second round of rebound when running to 6760, and returned to the shock around 6850 again.
In the daily chart, the K line closed shade line for three consecutive days. Yesterday, a large shade line successfully pulled the currency price below the moving average to shock, and the bearish mood was strong; Today, the market is gradually coming out of the low position, constantly trying to return to its upper continue to run; The five-day moving average and the ten-day moving average still maintain a gentle posture. If the currency price can break the upward trend as expected, and stabilize the fluctuation above it, and it is expected to sprint to run above 7000 again; but space is limited, it is appropriate to lighten up positions.
At the same time, this callback and rebound will cause emotional instability. If today's decadence is not correct, the volume and price will not be collected. If the Doji has been kept closed for in the day, the market will still look down.
In the four-hour level chart, the Bollinger Bands close, and the market is running in the middle and lower rail areas of the Bollinger Bands, which is now located at 6891; The five-day moving average is running smoothly, and the market has now stabilized to run above it; while the upper 60-day moving average is the current short-term maximum resistance level.
Support level: the first support level is 6750 points, the second support level is 6700 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 7050 points, the second resistance level is 7100 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 1 million community members in 24 hours.
submitted by kivo360 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
Let's get real. [Vitalik talks about this constantly]. The cryptocurrency/blockchain community has a cultural problem.Edit: Links here suck. I put quotes around them so you can spot them out. I did a lot of research for this post.
Edit #2: Put square brackets around links. Now they should be clearly visible.
TLDR: The ills Vitalik talks about are primarily about psychology. New scalable solutions can fix it partially, but we have to deal with people first.
Before I dig deep into this post, I want to let you know what it's about. Yes, you'll see some emotional content. You'll see ideological ideas. However, this post ain't about ideologies. It's about something I deem as a real problem. Its about the corrupt mindsets that we have as community since the prices spiked early 2017. To advance forward, I want to analyze them, distill the problem into the most basic form possible, then point people into a direction I deem would be good for the cryptocurrency community. The format will go like this:
Why I'm HereTime travel back into pre-2017 and you'll see that the cryptocurrency/blockchain community was filled with hopeful young nerds that dreamed of making the world into a better place; A much more open, peaceful and freer place. I was going through a hard time with my life 2015-16 -- my twin died, I was on the verge of going homeless with nobody else to rely on, had to go unbanked in America, almost entirely dropped out of college and my first contracting business failed. I couldn't get my life right at all, and I didn't see any hope. The future was bleak to me. However, I found people here in the blockchain community actually trying their hardest to do things that would solve the world's problems, [even if that was mainly reporting the news for people and addressing people live in chat to create a community]. That drew me in well before the price of cryptocurrencies spiked; almost in a manic like way -- I read about it constantly, practiced solidity, talked to everyone I could that would have the capacity to understand cryptocurrencies and more.
Even now, when I attend conferences, I meet good-hearted, sleep deprived developers, marketers, business owners and specialist that aim to solve the world's greatest problems in the best ways they can. Many are in small corners of the world helping each other out. Inside of this community I found hope and meaning. My depression lifted, my anxiety went away, my life got back on track, and that hope propels me though the field years since I joined this movement. I'm now more confident than ever knowing that collectively this industry will possibly be the epicenter of change for not only money, but for everything. We'll [eliminate poverty], [solve global warming], [prevent hyper-inflation like we've seen with Venezuela], [improve supply chains] around the world, improve healthcare, and solve the [social ills of the world like corruption]. That's just the tip of the iceberg. I believe intensely in the vision set for crypto.
The community is filled with brilliant people that will make a difference. That excites me.
I'm for freedom, boosting happiness of individuals, increasing health, making life more fun and less stressful for the common person, open discussions to progress everyone forward, and a more livable planet. I'm thinking of all people and I'm not against any group. However, I'm not for FUD, greed while abusing others, bigotry, trolling, hatred, racism, evil acts and stealing. Those are against my values. I think that's against the values of many of the cryptocurrency community's foundational members.
A problem we can't ignoreIn 2017, as the prices exploded and the returns grew in for the average person, I noticed the community was starting to get tainted. People were no longer focusing on technology, freedom and community. No longer focusing on creating better lives for people in their communities around the world. We were missing the altruism I originally felt in the community. [If I were in Vitalik shoes, where I'd invest 80-100 hours a week into a vision, I'd feel extreme frustration too]. People are instead focusing on [needless politics], searching for the next big price pump, the next big score. Instead of people figuring out about how to use blockchain and crypto for making people's lives better, I've heard people say HODL and scam more than I ever have in the history of the community. This saddens me and frustrates me at the same time. On one end I see great potential and beauty in the community, and at the same time I see the beast within us come out that hasn't been even thought about deeply enough to be accurately tamed. Trolls, profiteers running away with ICO money, market manipulators and scam artist ruining the reputation and progress of the community.
While I could complain about what I see, I decided to instead dissect it in this post. I wanted to know what's causing this on a larger scale. See, by training I'm a psychologist, social scientist and computer scientist. I've been transitioning over to economics and data science because I feel it's a solid cornerstone of the industry. My perspective will be coming from those first. Allow me to explain. If our community is going to "grow up and actually solve problems", the corruption of minds because of money needs to be fully explored first.
Only by understanding the problem thoroughly can we solve it.
Explicitly stating the problem: Its the extreme predatory, egotistical, harsh behavior we as a community have adopted.
The Psychology And Behavioral Science Of FinanceLet's start with the biggest premise. Money is an idea. It exist because people communicate, produce, share, trade, have scarcity for goods and have needs. Money is an ideological binding agent for people.
Money and the MindOur mind is complex. Beyond the usual processing of information people have (our 11 senses), we people have 2 primary centers for decision making and control.
The first one is the limbic system. It has gone by the nickname of "the lizard brain" in recent history. It's responsible for storing memories, handling stress responses, attention and emotional processing. In a sense, it controls all of intuition and fast heuristic choices you make.
The second system is known as the prefrontal cortex. It controls higher order functions such as planning, reasoning, serial processing and how we think about emotions.
These two centers are not mutually exclusive. You brain has circuits to make decisions about everything. The two parts talk to each other to do so. Any dysfunction in behavior is usually due to a lack of communication between these two decision centers, rather than a lack of communication between the centers of your brain. This is heavily seen in mental disorders. According to the book [Upward Spiral ], a book that looks at mental disorders from a neuroscientific view and explains how to reverse the ill effects of them, here's now some disorders can play out inside of our heads:
How Crypto FitsThis should hopefully be the first question we have. It's easy to only pay attention to the ill behaviors of the more recent cryptocurrency industry and say "shame on you!". But what if people had a hard time actually controlling themselves? Inside of the book Upward Spiral, Alex Korb, the neuroscientist that wrote it explored that people with depression and anxiety had a hard time not being depressed and anxious by choice. Because the depressed person's circuitry is skewed, they act on it subconsciously in a forever perpetuating loop. In fact, the only way to reverse depression is to reverse the circuitry that holds it together.
Part of what makes anti-depressants more effective is that the serotonin improves sleep and makes a person's brain more susceptible to positive changes. That would be doing things like doing gratitude journals everyday to make your anterior cingular cortices notice more positive events, being around people who love you to boost your serotonin and cut down stress hormones, or getting a little exercise everyday to send oxygen to your brain.
So that leads us back to the original question. What if people didn't have a fully conscious control over how they acted about money and crypto? I did some research between many different articles and found that this was absolutely the case. People don't have much control. They tend to be on extremes of some end all the time.
How Does Finance Play With The Brain?
Of the many ways, there's one key way it does. Money plays with people through the the hypothalamus stress response. It charges people into fight or flight mode, and can literally destabilize the homeostatic systems. This can do all sorts of things. It can make the anterior cingulate weaker in strength (known to help us control emotions and learn), and therefore reduce the power of our prefrontal cortex. When people are stressed about finance, or even excited about it, it will put people into extreme states. [Meaning the lizard brain takes the show]. That can make people easily make haphazard decisions.
Of course, there's other things that happen with the introduction of more money, but that IS the most intense thing to take note of.
If we want to solve the problem of relinquishing poor community, like Vitalik continuously makes comments about, we need to look at the problem in this way. If we don't see it this way, we're screwed. The problem wont be solved, companies like Microsoft will continuously kill off their implementations due to price fluctuations, the cryptocurrency community wont pass go and wont make a huge impact. Instead we'll blame, shout at each other, and create another Wall Street 2.0. In fact, we'll become worse than them. We will have more leverage over resources than any other group in history and the corruption will be strong.
Money affects decisions, period.
Solving the Cultural problemI'm nervous. As I type this response, I know that by revealing my idea to the public I could be condemned by the community for "shilling", and even worse, somebody else can pick it up and run with it. That is the most nerve wreaking thing I could ever consider. Months of 80 hour weeks and extreme sacrifices to bring out a vision because I didn't see much of a choice. If we don't remove what limits us soon as a community we will get engulfed by outsiders that don't want to create virtuous society.
My solution: Algorithmic Trading
Now, before you tell me that the market is entirely unpredictable, I'd like to be one to say that the notion is false. We see everywhere that people using AI and more complex forms of math to be able to make reasonable gains in the financial world. Companies like Bridgewater predicted the financial crash of 2008 with reasonable accuracy, and other people like [mathematicians are able to do the same]. Realistically, the market has some degree of predictability. However, much of the access to that is limited.
Even beyond that, the financial industry is one of the only social fields that is highly transparent to many actors, through the news and price information, and reflects ideas and beliefs through the markets. If we can better analyze markets, we could discover all sorts of social phenomenon that previously made no sense. With algorithmic trading we're heavily incentivized to learn, as that will produce a direct outcome of earning money.
We could better solve the social ills of the world quickly and efficiently over time. On top of that, we will be able to stabilize the market and protect against bad agents if algorithmic trading becomes coordinated and effective enough throughout the industry.
Again, How Does it Fit With Cryptocurrency?
Bitconnect could answer how automated trading fits.
Before I continue, let me be clear. People lost their money through that scam. It was awful. I know some people that had a lot of money taken from them. Many of them are now fearful of cryptocurrency.
However, I don't think Bitconnect was 100% wrong with their idea. Yes they were a ponzi scheme, yet realistically many of the people I met that fell for it felt as though the crypto markets were already complex. They were losing money while HODLing, making rash decisions and trading.
Bitcoin and the entire industry carries too much of a cognitive burden for a person to keep track of beyond their normal everyday life. News, prices, scams, hacks and technical information. That's a lot to keep track of if you have 3-4 part-time jobs as a single mom or dad while raising 2 kids. That's a lot to keep track of if you're old and don't have the technical capacity to read into the crypto markets all day everyday.
Therefore, even while people were making less money from investing into Bitconnect, on paper it required less thinking and they were still getting benefits that they cared about. They could share with friends because they thought that there money would not shrink in value heavily due to a random market crash. As a consumer, it isn't wrong to believe that you can be apart of something big without having to work an extra 5 hours everyday reading blogs and watching youtube videos just to keep up with the happenings of the industry.
It doesn't require us to be judging people for falling into a ponzi scheme. It requires a bit of caring and empathy to see people's main intentions. They want a better life compared to the one that has been crushing them with student debt and poor job prospects. People want to have a better life without being as stressed beyond belief like they currently are.
And for the everyday trader, giving them the incentive they seek, while giving them the capacity to do some research for themselves is important. Choice matters a lot for some people.
Steps I've taken towards this:Here comes the shill part you've been waiting for. Over the last year I've been building an application that would help us solve the problems we face today as a community. It I'll reduce the stress response of people worrying more about money, with technology like it getting standardized throughout the entire industry, it'll make things a lot more stable. It's an automated AI-based trading platform that aims to make reduce the cognitive load and worry about holding your funds in crypto. The aim of it is to dynamically trade for people while also letting them have 100% control over their funds. For now, that's by using exchange API keys. Though in the future, that can be through decentralized exchanges, meaning no middle man.
My product's name: It's [Funguana.com]. [Internally meaning the interconnection of all Dhrama in the Huayan Buddhist religion].
I've already received controversial reviews, and feel crazy for putting it back out there. However, I'm now confident I can follow through, and maybe by explaining my reasoning behind why I built it the community will respond differently this time.
To make it more trust-able, 4 months after public release, if my resources allow me to, I plan to open source the infrastructure code so people can implement their own platform within a matter of weeks, then systemically open many of the algorithms so they can appropriate powerful algorithms together over time (many not based on AI). I have to be strategic though. If I open it too soon, too many bad actors can enter the space and cause havoc early, without much chance to keep them in check.
Edit: I made changes to the page to make the links more obvious. Now they're in bold and italic
Edit 2: Adding quotes to make links more obvious again.
We know the market is volatile. If you buy into a coin and it decreases in value, you can either cover yourself with a stop order, or if your coin is a long-term hold, you may want to wait it out. Have a look at price fluctuations over the last couple of months and see how the value has increased and decreased. Dollar-cost average Keep your emotions under control. A bitcoin trader has to witness numerous fluctuations and ups and downs. To face them easily, you must have good control over your emotions, and your emotions should influence yours. Usually, when a person faces bitcoin trading losses, he gets a bit worried, which leads him to make wrong decisions. It is highly important to stay unaffected by your emotions and ... Bitcoin Market Analysis. In technical market analysis, you focus on a coin’s price specifically. This strategy requires you to utilize technical indicators and ignore outside variables contributing to the price. In this way, you are able to remove emotion from your decisions. 6 Tenets of Dow Theory 3 Market Movements. Main Movement – The main movement is the major trend currently underway ... Also, they eliminate human emotions like greed and fear during trading. Earlier, Warren Buffett who is considered as a value investor, said that greed and fear are the biggest hindrances for successful trading. By using the latest technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing, Bitcoin Robots would be able to read the human language; which means ... Finally, the emergence of a credible competitor, perhaps with the backing of major (central) banks, could see Bitcoin lose market share in future. Price Oddities. Sometimes an exchange’s price may be entirely different from the consensus price, as occurred for a sustained period on Mt. Gox prior to its failure and recently on the Winkelvoss’ Gemini exchange. In mid-Novermber 2015, BTCUSD ...
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